Impulsive Response Analysis of Financial Markets in QUAD Economies: A VAR Modelling Approach

Abstract

Financial market integration remains a key focus in academic finance, especially given how crucial it is to portfolio diversification. The purpose of this research is to investigate a crucial yet underexplored aspect like the cointegration of economies with formal or unofficial military ties, focusing on countries within the Quad strategic forum—India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. The daily closing values of benchmark stock market indices of Quad economies viz. Nikkie 225 for Japan, S&P ASX 200 for Australia, NASDAQ composite for the United States, and S&P Sensex for India were considered. Unit root tests, Johansen Cointegration tests, VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model, and the Granger Causality statistics are computed for data analysis. Additionally, the Impulse response function and variance decomposition are computed for better financial market predictions. The result reveals intriguing dynamics: while the Indian stock market initially responds positively to shocks in the Australian market, this effect diminishes over time. Also, movements in the Australian and United States stock markets significantly contribute to predicting fluctuations in the Indian market, contrasting with the limited predictive power of the Japanese stock market. These findings carry significant practical implications for international investors, offering valuable guidance for optimizing portfolio diversification strategies amidst geopolitical and economic complexities. This paper contributes to academic literature by offering empirical insights into the short-term dynamics and causal relationships of Quad countries’ stock markets, setting a foundation for future studies on long-term trends and market responses to external factors.