Improving the Representation of Climate Change Adaptation Behaviour in New Zealand’s Forest Growing Sector

Abstract

To provide the forest industry with a better understanding of alternatives to simulate future adaptation pathways under evolving climatic and socio-economic uncertainty, we review the literature on how adaptation decisions are modelled in the context of plantation forests. This review leads to the conclusion that the representation of adaptation behaviour and decision-making remain very limited in most of the agent-based models in the forestry sector. Moreover, theoretical frameworks used to understand the adaptation behaviour of forest owners are also lacking. In this paper, we propose the application of protection motivation theory (PMT) as a framework to understand the motivation of forest owners to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on their forest plantations. Furthermore, the use of PMT allows factors affecting the maladaptive behaviour of forest owners to be examined. A survey of New Zealand foresters showed that less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. This result highlights the importance of addressing the research question “what motivates forest owners to take risk reduction measures?” Exploring this question is crucial to the future success of the New Zealand forestry sector and we suggest that it can be addressed by using PMT. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for an agent-based model as an alternative to simulating adaptation pathways for forest plantations in New Zealand.

Adaptation Finance: Risks and Opportunities for Aotearoa New Zealand

“…A recent survey found that, in Aotearoa New Zealand, less than 10% of smallholder forest owners adopted adaptation strategies. 154 While there is high uncertainty for climate-related risks for plantation forestry, there are reasonable concerns over issues such as windthrow, particularly in densely planted stands, 155 and wildfire as the frequency of fire weather increases along the east coast of Aotearoa New Zealand. 156 These pose material risks to forestry companies and farm businesses with small forests, which have relevance for associated investors and creditors.…”

Climate change adaptation behaviour of forest growers in New Zealand: an application of protection motivation theory

“…However, most climate change research in forestry has focused on understanding the climate change impacts on ecological processes (Seidl et al 2016). In New Zealand, very little attention has been paid to climate change adaptation in managed production forests (Villamor et al 2022). As of 2019, around 1.7 million ha of plantation forests with an annual export value of $6.3 billion are exposed to climate change risks (MPI 2021b).…”