Improving the Generation of Decision Objectives

Abstract

R eal decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to the generation of decision objectives: not thinking broadly enough about the range of relevant objectives, and not thinking deeply enough to articulate every objective within the range that is considered. To test these explanations and explore ways of stimulating a more comprehensive set of objectives, we present three experiments involving a variety of interventions: the provision of sample objectives, organization of objectives by category, and direct challenges to do better, with or without a warning that important objectives are missing. The use of category names and direct challenges with a warning both led to improvements in the quantity of objectives generated without impacting their quality; other interventions yielded less improvement. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings to decision analysis and offering prescriptive implications for the elicitation of decision objectives.

Identifying and Structuring Objectives for the Design of Lean Processes in Manufacturing Companies Approach and Results of an Empirical Survey among Small and Medium Sized Enterprises

“…However, in an empirical study, Bond, Carlson and Keeney could refute this. [11] In a first step, participants were asked to list as many objectives as possible for a very important decision situation in their life. These situations included such decisions as the choice of an internship, a dissertation topic or the future career.…”

“…This serves the purpose of generating meaningful alternatives and can be a first step towards the formulation of a quantitative model of effects. [11,15] …”

Problem structuring: on the nature of, and reaching agreement about, goals

“…In addition, eliciting a comprehensive set of objectives is seen as difficult and ''requires significant creativity in discussion with decision makers'' (Keeney 1996: 538; see also Bond et al 2010). What managers see as crucial issues provides significant clues as to emergent goals.…”

Integrating multicriteria evaluation and data visualization as a problem structuring approach to support territorial transformation projects

“…In the past, transport investments in cities were possible through debate on the basis of growth allocation and were the main means to promote economic development and revitalization of depressed areas (Marshall and Banister 2007). This topic has now been broadened to embrace new aspects, such as the growing awareness and concern about sustainability (Hickman and Banister 2014;Whitehead et al 2006), for which a balance between social, ethical, environmental, financial and operational criteria is needed with both short-and long-term considerations (Bond et al 2008(Bond et al , 2010Hahn 2014). Moreover, the presence of many actors with different backgrounds has limited the information-sharing process (Kiker et al 2005;Huang et al 2011).…”