Improving Land-Use Modelling within CGE to Assess Forest-Based Mitigation Potential and Costs

Abstract

SummaryWe present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest mitigation would require other regions to take part in a climate stabilization agreement, especially those where old-growth forests exist. Keywords AbstractWe present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO 2 emissions of 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forestsequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest...

Climate–Human–Land Interactions: A Review of Major Modelling Approaches

“…Each AEZ implies different acreage characteristics due to climatic conditions and soil features. Framework based on this new database are, for example, GTAP-AEZ [76][77][78], GTAP-AEZ-GHG [6,79,80], and ICES-AEZ [81]. Recent attempts have converted the static nature of these models into a recursive dynamic framework [82,83] or extended the running period up to the year of 2080, as in the coupling experiment between the IIASA-FAO AEZ model and the BLS CGE framework [84].…”

A Sub-National CGE Model for Italy

“…Examples of this type are CAPRI-GTAP (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis -Global Trade Analysis Project) (Jansson et al, 2009), CAPSIM (China's Agricultural Policy Simulation Model) (Yang et al, 2011), GTAP-AEZ (Global Trade Analysis Project -AgroEcological Zones) Lee et al, 2009) and the ICES-AEZ (Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System -AgroEcological Zones) (Michetti and Parrado, 2012). 1 Against this background, we describe a methodology to build a sub-national version of a CGE model and database presenting originally the country as the highest detail.…”