Improving inferences from short‐term ecological studies with Bayesian hierarchical modeling: white‐headed woodpeckers in managed forests

Linden, Daniel W.; Roloff, Gary J.

doi:10.1002/ece3.1618

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…We used Gibbs variable selection (Ntzoufras ; e.g., Linden and Roloff ) to quantify relative support for including combinations of our fixed effects in a model of daily survival probability. For each coefficient

β_{k}

, for

k = 1,2, . . . 6

we specified an indicator variable

w_{k} \sim Bernoulli (p w_{k}), p w_{k} \sim Uniform (0,1)

.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and growth of northern bobwhite offspring post‐translocation

et al. 2019

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Continual population declines in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) have prompted the use of population restoration techniques in conjunction with habitat management to restore their populations. We tested the site familiarity hypothesis to determine if translocation to new environments affected offspring survival and growth rates of bobwhites. We used bobwhites from north Florida and translocated them to a study site in Brunswick County, North Carolina, USA, and monitored birds during April−October 2016 and April−October 2017. We used the corral capture method and modified‐suture technique to capture and radio‐tag chicks to evaluate offspring growth and survival rates of resident and translocated bobwhites. Offspring survival varied by year and age. We did not find any difference in offspring survival rates of resident and translocated individuals, lending no support to the site familiarity hypothesis with regards to survival. Offspring of resident bobwhites did not grow at a faster rate than offspring of translocated bobwhites, indicating a lack of support for the site familiarity hypothesis in terms of physiological development. Survival, however, is a more important metric for determining post‐translocation population dynamics, and our results indicated that translocated bobwhites can reproduce and raise offspring similar to resident counterparts, but both had low survival. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

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β_{k}

, for

k = 1,2, . . . 6

we specified an indicator variable

w_{k} \sim Bernoulli (p w_{k}), p w_{k} \sim Uniform (0,1)

.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and growth of northern bobwhite offspring post‐translocation

et al. 2019

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“…The multinomial probabilities

π_{e, i, k}

were re‐parameterized as conditional binomials following Linden and Roloff () to derive parameters with a more natural interpretation. Thus:

{normalπ}_{1, i, k} = {normalτ}_{1, i, k} (1 - {normalτ}_{2, i, k})

{normalπ}_{2, i, k} = {normalτ}_{1, i, k} * {normalτ}_{2, i, k}

{normalπ}_{3, i, k} = (1 - {normalτ}_{1, i, k})

where

τ_{1, i, k}

was conditional on a nest being occupied (

z_{i, k} = 1

) and represented the probability of a nest successfully producing at least one nestling, and

τ_{2, i, k}

was conditional on nest success and estimated the probability of a nest being highly productive (producing ≥ 2 nestlings).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The multinomial probabilities π e,i,k were re-parameterized as conditional binomials following Linden and Roloff (2015) to derive parameters with a more natural interpretation. Thus:…”

Section: Reproductive Multi-state Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing individual nests promotes population recovery of a top predator

Cruz

Windels

Thogmartin

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Threatened species are managed using diverse conservation tactics implemented at multiple scales ranging from protecting individuals, to populations, to entire species. Individual protection strives to promote recovery at the population‐ or species‐level, although this is seldom evaluated. After decades of widespread declines, bald eagles, Haliaeetus leucocephalus, are recovering throughout their range due to legal protection and pesticide bans. However, like other raptors, their recovery remains threatened by human activities. Bald eagle nests are commonly managed using buffer zones to minimize human disturbance, but the benefits of this practice remain unquantified. Within Voyageurs National Park (VNP), Minnesota, USA, managers have monitored bald eagle populations for over 40 years, and since 1991, have protected at‐risk nests from human disturbance using buffer zones (200 and 400 m radius). We aimed to (1) quantify the recovery of bald eagles in VNP (1973–2016), and (2) provide a first‐ever evaluation of the individual‐ and population‐level effects of managing individual nests. To do so, we developed Bayesian Integrated Population Models combining observations of nest occupancy and reproductive output (metrics commonly collected for raptors) to estimate nest‐level probabilities of occupancy, nest success, and high productivity (producing ≥2 nestlings), as well as population‐level estimates of abundance and growth. The breeding population of bald eagles at VNP increased steadily from <10 pairs in the late 1970s to 48 pairs by 2016. At the nest‐level, management significantly improved occupancy and success. At the population‐level, management led to 8% and 13% increases in nest success and productivity rates, respectively, resulting in a 37% increase in breeding pair abundance. Synthesis and applications. There is a clear need to evaluate how management approaches at multiple scales assist in species recovery. Our study uses an Integrated Population Model to reveal the population‐level benefits of a widely used, individual‐based management action (protecting nests using buffer zones) on a recovering raptor.

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“…This study adds to the growing body of literature indicating that white-headed woodpeckers successfully occupy and breed in forests with historic and recent timber harvest activity (Kozma and Kroll, 2013;Linden and Roloff, 2015;Lindstrand and Humes, 2009;Lorenz et al, 2015a). While they typically require snags for nesting and roosting -one potential component of old-growth (Garrett et al, 1996) -they are not necessarily dependent on large, old pines for foraging during the breeding season.…”

Section: Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 85%