Improving All‐Sky Simulations of Typhoon Cloud/Rain Band Structures of NOAA‐20 CrIS Window Channel Observations

Abstract

The Cross‐track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) observations (O) contributed greatly to numerical weather prediction. Further contribution depends on the success of all‐sky data assimilation, which requires a method to produce realistic cloud/rain band structures from background fields (i.e., 6‐hr forecasts), and to remove large biases of all‐sky simulation of brightness temperature (TB) in the presence of clouds. In this study, CrIS all‐sky simulations of brightness temperatures at an arbitrarily selected window channel within Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) are investigated. The 3‐km Weather Research and Forecasting model with three microphysics schemes were used to produce 6‐hr background forecasts (B). The O − B statistic deviate greatly from Gaussian distribution with large biases in either water clouds, or thin ice clouds, or thick ice clouds within Typhoon Hinnamnor. By developing a linear regression function of three all‐sky simulations of TB from 6‐hr forecasts with three microphysics schemes, the O − B statistics approximate a Gaussian normal distribution in water clouds, thin ice clouds and thick ice clouds. Taking the regression function that is established by a training data set to combine 6‐hr background forecasts at later times, the cloud/rain band structures compared much more favorably with CrIS observations than those from an individual microphysic. Furthermore, the regression coefficients derived from Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) also work for Typhoon Khanun (2023). The work aims to quantify and remove biases in background fields of TB and generating realistic typhoon cloud/rain band structures in background fields will allow a better description of center position, intensity and size to improve typhoon forecasts.