Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Toma-Dănilă, Dragoş; Zülfikar, Can; Manea, Elena Florinela; Cioflan, Carmen Ortanza

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2015.02.013

Cited by 19 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…6), which shows dense, concentrated areas of very high vulnerability in most of the peripheral zones of the city where more small residences tend to be found rather than large blocks of flats. The areas identified as being vulnerable reveal an image validated by past events and the results of previous studies (Rufat 2009;Trendafiloski et al 2009;Armaş 2012;Armaş and Radulian 2014;Toma-Danila et al 2015a). …”

Section: Overall Vulnerability Mapsupporting

confidence: 68%

“…The common perception, at the level of the general populace, is that the city would be greatly affected by an earthquake (Armaş 2008). Recent studies that refer to the seismic vulnerability and risk of Bucharest at a city level, such as Armaş (2012), Lang et al (2012), Toma-Danila et al (2015a), and , all show critical issues that need to be further analyzed.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazard: Bucharest Case Study, Romania

Armaş

Toma-Dănilă

Ionescu

et al. 2017

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Recent seismic events show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage, which leads to unprecedented levels of risk. Cities are complex systems and as such their analysis requires a good understanding of the interactions between space and the socioeconomic variables characteristic of the inhabitants of urban space. There is a clear need to develop and test detailed models that describe the behavior of these interactions under seismic impact. This article develops an overall vulnerability index to seismic hazard based on a spatial approach applied to Bucharest, Romania, the most earthquake-prone capital in the European Union. The methodology relies on: (1) spatial post-processed socioeconomic data from the 2011 Romanian census through multicriteria analysis; and (2) analytical methods (the Improved Displacement Coefficient Method and custom-defined vulnerability functions) for estimating damage patterns, incorporated in a GIS environment. We computed vulnerability indices for the 128 census tracts of the city. Model sensitivity assessment tested the robustness of spatially identified patterns of building vulnerability in the face of uncertainty in model inputs. The results show that useful seismic vulnerability indices can be obtained through interdisciplinary approaches that enhance less detailed datasets, which leads lead to better targeted mitigation efforts.

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Section: Overall Vulnerability Mapsupporting

confidence: 68%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazard: Bucharest Case Study, Romania

Armaş

Toma-Dănilă

Ionescu

et al. 2017

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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“…In this respect, although complementary, the diversity of results is determined by the use of different analyses of Bucharest' vulnerability and sustainability. They are based on either multi-criteria approaches (Armaş et al, 2012(Armaş et al, , 2013(Armaş et al, , 2014Toma-Danila et al, 2015), on models of damage estimation (Duzgun et al, 2011;Lang et al, 2012), on GIS analyses of statistics and territorial databases (Rufat, 2009;Chen et al, 2010) or the analysis of sustainability and vulnerability from the perspective of urban planning (Petrişor et al, 2010;Ianoş et al, 2017). The common research objective is to identify vulnerable urban territories and establish the hierarchies and characteristics of each urban area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The shadow of the "Great Earthquake" on a sustainable Bucharest. Shared responsibilities and disaster risk management

Suditu¹

2020

hgeo

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Bucharest is located in Romania's most active seismic area. In the past, the city has been significantly affected by a few earthquakes, including the 1977 one, which was one of the strongest and caused the most significant number of human victims and material damage. The concentration of population, old or high buildings means that in Bucharest, living with high seismic risks is one of the most important economic and socio-demographic vulnerabilities. The shadow of the great earthquake is constantly present here in debates and public actions, but the operationalisation of disaster risk management measures are not yet at optimum in terms of implementation actions. This research presents a critical assessment of regulatory and operational measures used to identify vulnerable seismic buildings, the responsibilities of the public and private stakeholders involved, and the way in which each of latter assumes and implements the first.

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“…This paper investigates the potential social impact of a major seismic event affecting the capital city of Romania. Bucharest is one of the cities having the highest seismic risk in Europe, with direct losses in case of Vrancea earthquakes with M W ≥ 7.5 mounting up to several billion euros and the number of heavily damaged or collapsed buildings being of the order of several thousand [1][2][3]. Earthquakes of this magnitude occur, on average, once or twice per century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Perspective on the Social Impact of a Strong Earthquake Affecting Bucharest

Calotescu

Pavel

Sandulescu

et al. 2017

Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering

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Abstract:The paper presents a series of the results obtained from an extensive questionnaire survey conducted in Bucharest in 2016. The investigated topics are related to earthquake awareness and preparedness of the population currently living in the capital city of Romania, safety concerns and post-earthquake behaviour. Results are interpreted based on several criteria which characterize the target population such as age, education, income, children, as well as the type and year of construction of the building they inhabit. The questionnaire was completed by 1000 respondents and the main findings show that people are generally neither well informed nor prepared for a future major seismic event affecting Bucharest. However, the level of involvement in postearthquake situations is positive, the majority of respondents agreeing to offer humanitarian help in various forms as well as temporary shelter to people, especially relatives or friends.

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Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Cited by 19 publications

References 11 publications

Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazard: Bucharest Case Study, Romania

Vulnerability to Earthquake Hazard: Bucharest Case Study, Romania

The shadow of the "Great Earthquake" on a sustainable Bucharest. Shared responsibilities and disaster risk management

Population Perspective on the Social Impact of a Strong Earthquake Affecting Bucharest

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