Improved prediction of the climate-driven outbreaks of<i>Dendrolimus pini</i>in<i>Pinus sylvestris</i>forests

Ray, Duncan; Peace, Andrew; Moore, R. W.; Petr, Michal; Grieve, Yvonne; Convery, Carina; Ziesche, Tim

doi:10.1093/forestry/cpw007

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The European pine moth (Dendrolimus pini L.) and the nun moth (Lymantria monacha L.), for example, both benefit from climatic changes towards higher temperatures and less precipitation in summer as expected in regional studies [9,10]. The pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pytiocampa D. and S.) and the oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea L.) are other regional examples of how insect species may take advantage of favorable conditions [11,12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Möller¹,

Hentschel²,

Wenning³

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:The biology and population dynamics of pine sawfly Diprion pini L. are extremely complex and variable. Among other factors, climatic conditions determine the potential for mass outbreaks of the species. In this paper, we investigate this influence and describe a statistical approach to identify responsible climatic variables in floating time windows, thus identifying the factors responsible for the transition from latency to outbreak events. Analyses were built upon a data base comprising outbreak events and fine-scaled climatic data for the period 2002-2016 for a model region in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. By applying Random Forest statistic classification analyses, we isolated a set of four variables. They cover precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in distinct periods during the current and the previous year. These periods are not fixed in their position but attached to the floating phenological date of bud burst of the host species Pinus sylvestris L. The complete set of variables was able to distinguish forests likely to be defoliated from those not threatened at high probabilities (95% true-positive rate, 98% true-negative rate). The identified climatic windows offer insights into population dynamics in the study region, support adjustments in current monitoring algorithms, and indicate starting points for further investigations covering other regions or different years.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Möller¹,

Hentschel²,

Wenning³

et al. 2017

Forests

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“…Warm and dry conditions in late summer during the flight, copulation, and egg deposition phase as reflected by the variable clim_tmax_fly_m2p2_mean (Figure 5) further promote a high population density of Den (Weckwerth, 1952; Majunke, 2000; Ray et al, 2016). Sunshine during September (clim_sun_pm_09_sd) is positive for the development of the thermophilic egg larvae that represent the most sensitive development stage of the insect’s life cycle.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dip shows a great irregularity in the timing of gradations over the observed period 1920–2013. Ray et al (2016) and Schafellner and Möller (2018) described the preference of Den for warm and dry late summer months and classified this species as a climate-change winner. For Dip the observation of a new unexpected and strong mass outbreak in northeast Germany in 2016 was the reason to investigate the causal relations between weather and population development in detail (Möller et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance of Ecological Variables in Explaining Population Dynamics of Three Important Pine Pest Insects

Hentschel

Möller²,

Wenning³

et al. 2018

Front. Plant Sci.

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Climate change challenges forest vitality both directly by increasing drought and heat periods and indirectly, e.g., by creating favorable conditions for mass outbreaks of phyllophagous insects. The large forests dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) that cover the lowland regions in northeast Germany have already been affected regularly by cyclic mass propagations of defoliating insect species in the past with climate projections implying an even more advantageous environment for devastating outbreaks in the future. To improve predictive and responsive capacities we have investigated a wide range of ecological parameters to identify those most strongly related to past outbreak waves of three central species. In total, we analyzed 3,748 variables covering stand and neighborhood properties, site quality, and climatic conditions for an area of roughly 750,000 ha of pine forests in the period 2002–2016. To reflect sensitivity against varying climate, we computed “floating windows” in relation to critical phenological phases of the respective insects. The parameters with the highest explanatory power resulted from the variable importance measures of the Random Forest (RF) methodology and have been evaluated by a 10-fold cross-validation process. Our findings closely reflect the known specific gradation patterns and show that relative variable importance varies with species. While Lymantria monacha L. feeding was mainly dependent on the surroundings of the respective stand, Diprion pini L. proved to be almost exclusively susceptible to climatic effects in its population dynamics. Dendrolimus pini L. exhibited a mixed pattern of variable importance involving both climatic and forest structure parameters. In many cases the obtained statistical results support well-known ecological cause-effect relations and long-term population change dynamics. The RF delivered very high levels of sensitivity and specificity in the developed classifications and proved to be an excellent tool to handle the large amounts of data utilized for this study. While the presented classification approach may already support a better prognosis of the amplitude during the outbreak culmination, the obtained (most important) variables are proposed as preferable covariates for modeling population dynamics of the investigated insect species.

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“…The pine-tree lappet moth, Dendrolimus pini (L.) (Lepidoptera, Lasiocampidae), is a widely distributed pest in Europe [1,2]. Its primary host is Pinus sylvestris L., but larvae can also feed on the needles of other species, mainly pines [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…pini can cause serious needle defoliation, often followed by tree death, and its outbreaks can occur over large geographical areas [6]. It particularly happens at 30 to 60-year-old even-aged monocultures on warm and dry climatic conditions, where precipitation does not exceed 600 mm [7,3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First Record of Dendrolimus pini Outbreak on Aleppo Pine in Croatia and Severe Case of Population Collapse Caused by Entomopathogen Beauveria bassiana

Matek

Pernek

2018

SEEFOR

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Improved prediction of the climate-driven outbreaks ofDendrolimus piniinPinus sylvestrisforests

Cited by 25 publications

References 21 publications

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Importance of Ecological Variables in Explaining Population Dynamics of Three Important Pine Pest Insects

First Record of Dendrolimus pini Outbreak on Aleppo Pine in Croatia and Severe Case of Population Collapse Caused by Entomopathogen Beauveria bassiana

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