Improved estimates of nearshore wave conditions in the Gulf of Finland

Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Tuomi, Laura; Fortelius, Carl; Pettersson, Heidi; Tikka, Kimmo; Kahma, Kimmo K.

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.07.005

Cited by 18 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Therefore the 2017 anomaly values can't be computed. However, the differences were evaluated using published results of extreme wave heights from long-term wave field simulations (Björkqvist et al 2017). The wave conditions in the Bothnian Bay were more severe in 2017 exceeding long-term percentiles by approximately 0.50 m. In the rest of the Baltic the 2017 significant wave height extremes remained within the range of ±0.25 m to the reported long-term percentiles by Björkqvist et al (2017).…”

Section: Extremes Variability In the Baltic Region Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the differences were evaluated using published results of extreme wave heights from long-term wave field simulations (Björkqvist et al 2017). The wave conditions in the Bothnian Bay were more severe in 2017 exceeding long-term percentiles by approximately 0.50 m. In the rest of the Baltic the 2017 significant wave height extremes remained within the range of ±0.25 m to the reported long-term percentiles by Björkqvist et al (2017). In the calculation of wave statistics for 99th percentiles Björkqvist et al (2017) excluded wave data from the calculations during ice covered period, while in CMEMS zero significant wave height values were used.…”

Section: Extremes Variability In the Baltic Region Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3

Schuckmann¹,

Traon²,

Smith³

et al. 2019

Journal of Operational Oceanography

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Section: Extremes Variability In the Baltic Region Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Extremes Variability In the Baltic Region Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3

Schuckmann¹,

Traon²,

Smith³

et al. 2019

Journal of Operational Oceanography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…A longer verification period could evidently have reduced the sampling uncertainty in the analyses and thereby sharpened the conclusions. Conversely, the 3-year verification is not short compared to the study by Bunney and Saulter (2015) or the CMEMS verification report by Tuomi et al (2017).…”

Section: Length Of Verification Periodmentioning

confidence: 81%

Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: improving resolution or introducing ensembles?

et al. 2018

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Abstract. The performance of short-range operational forecasts of significant wave height (SWH) in the Baltic Sea is evaluated. Forecasts produced by a base configuration are intercompared with forecasts from two improved configurations: one with improved horizontal and spectral resolution and one with ensembles representing uncertainties in the physics of the forcing wind field and the initial conditions of this field. Both of the improved forecast classes represent an almost equal increase in computational costs. Therefore, the intercomparison addresses the question of whether more computer resources would be more favorably spent on enhancing the spatial and spectral resolution or, alternatively, on introducing ensembles. The intercomparison is based on comparisons with hourly observations of significant wave height from seven observation sites in the Baltic Sea during the 3-year period from 2015 to 2017. We conclude that for most wave measurement sites, the introduction of ensembles enhances the overall performance of the forecasts, whereas increasing the horizontal and spectral resolution does not. These sites represent offshore conditions, in that they are well exposed from all directions, are a large distance from the nearest coast and in deep water. Therefore, there is the a priori expectation that a detailed shoreline and bathymetry will not have any impact. Only at one site do we find that increasing the horizontal and spectral resolution significantly improves the forecasts. This site is situated in nearshore conditions, close to land and a nearby island, and is therefore shielded from many directions. Consequently, this study concludes that to improve wave forecasts in offshore areas, ensembles should be introduced. For near shore areas, in comparison, the study suggests that additional computational resources should be used to increase the resolution.

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“…However, these open 25 sea observations are not representative of nearshore wave conditions (e.g. Kahma et al, 2016;Björkqvist et al, 2017a). The operational measurements have therefore been supported by short-term observations with smaller Datawell G4 wave buoys inside the Helsinki archipelago.…”

Section: Wind Wave Datamentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Close to the shoreline the waves are modified by the archipelago and the irregular shoreline (Tuomi et al, 2014;Björkqvist et al, 2017a). The significant wave height close to the coast in the Helsinki archipelago has been estimated to not exceed 2 m (Kahma et al, 2016), but the steep shoreline near Helsinki causes wave reflection leading to a positive interference (Björkqvist et al, 2017c).…”

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confidence: 99%

Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks

Leijala¹,

Björkqvist²,

Johansson³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Tools for estimating probabilities of flooding hazards caused by the simultaneous effect of sea level and waves are needed for the secure planning of densely populated coastal areas that are strongly vulnerable to climate change. In this paper we present a method for combining location-specific probability distributions of three different components: 1) long-term mean sea level change, 2) short-term sea level variations, and 3) wind-generated waves. We apply the method in two locations in the Helsinki Archipelago to obtain run-up level estimates representing the joint effect of the still water level and the wave run-up. 5These estimates for the present, 2050 and 2100 are based on field measurements and mean sea level scenarios. In the case of our study locations, the significant locational variability of the wave conditions leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to one meter. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty related to the associated scenarios contribute significantly to the run-up levels for the year 2100. We also present a sensitivity test of the method and discuss its applicability to other coastal regions. Our approach allows for the determining of different building levels based on the acceptable risks for 10 various infrastructure, thus reducing building costs while maintaining necessary safety margins.

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Improved estimates of nearshore wave conditions in the Gulf of Finland

Cited by 18 publications

References 26 publications

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3

Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: improving resolution or introducing ensembles?

Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks

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