Improved Chemical Tracer Simulation by MIROC4.0-based Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM)

Patra, Prabir K.; Takigawa, Masayuki; Watanabe, Shingo; Chandra, Naveen; Ishijima, Kentaro; Yamashita, Yousuke

doi:10.2151/sola.2018-016

Cited by 62 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We estimate consumption-based emissions from 1990 to 2016 by enumerating the global supply chain using a global model of the economic relationships between economic sectors within and among every country Peters et al, 2011a). Our analysis is based on the economic and trade data from the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP; Narayanan et al, 2015), and we make detailed estimates for the years 1997 (GTAP version 5), 2001 (GTAP6), and 2004, covering 57 sectors and 141 countries and regions.…”

Section: Emissions Embodied In Goods and Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All time series are in GtC yr −1 except the per capita emissions (d), which are in tonnes of carbon per person per year (tC person −1 yr −1 ). Territorial emissions are primarily fromBoden et al (2017) except national data for the US and EU28 (the 28 member states of the EU) for 1990-2016, which are reported by the countries to the UNFCCC as detailed in the text; consumption-based emissions are updated fromPeters et al (2011a). See Sect.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Global Carbon Budget 2018

Quéré

Andrew

Friedlingstein

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

1,249

832

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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere -the "global carbon budget" -is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) and terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ . For the last decade available (2008-2017), E FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , E LUC 1.5 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM 4.7 ± 0.02 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND 3.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 , with a budget imbalance B IM of 0.5 GtC yr −1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in E FF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 . Also for 2017, E LUC was 1.4 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 4.6 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO 2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global c...

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Section: Emissions Embodied In Goods and Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Quéré

Andrew

Friedlingstein

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

1,249

832

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“…The MIROC (version 4) -based atmospheric chemistry transport model ( in the Earth's atmosphere. MIROC4-ACTM (Patra et al, 2018;Watanabe et al, 2011) simulated horizontal winds and temperature are nudged to the JMA 55-year reanalysis JRA55 (Kobayashi et al, 2015), is well validated for large-scale interhemispheric transport using sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and the Brewer-Dobson circulation patterns using the age of air derived from CO2 and SF6 ). Thus we expect better simulations of XCO2 by accounting for the accurate meridional and vertical profiles of CO2.…”

Section: Miroc Atmospheric Chemistry-transport Model (Miroc4-actm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus we expect better simulations of XCO2 by accounting for the accurate meridional and vertical profiles of CO2. However, the convective (weekly or shorter time scale) transport remained unvalidated due to the lack of appropriate observational parameters, e.g., Radon-222 with radioactive decay lifetime of 3.8 days (Patra et al, 2018).…”

Section: Miroc Atmospheric Chemistry-transport Model (Miroc4-actm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Earth Systems Models and Atmospheric Inversions using Total Column CO2 Observations from GOSAT and OCO-2

Patra¹,

Tomohiro²,

Saito

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The measurements of one of the major greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), are being made using dedicated satellite remote sensing since the launch of the greenhouse gases observing satellite (GOSAT) by JAXA in 2009 and NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). In the past 10 years, estimation of CO 2 fluxes from land and ocean using the earth system models (ESMs) and inverse modelling of in situ atmospheric CO 2 data have also made significant progress. In this article, we attempt, for the first time, to evaluate the CO 2 fluxes simulated by an earth system model (MIROC-ES2L) using GOSAT observations and the fluxes estimated by an inverse model (MIROC4-Inv) for the period 2009-2014. Further, we use the OCO-2 measurements for testing the consistency of inversion results for the period 2014-2018, along with the GOSAT data. Both MIROC-ES2L and MIROC4-Inv fluxes are used in the MIROC4-atmospheric chemistry transport model (referred to as ACTM_ES2LF and ACTM_InvF, respectively) for calculating CO 2 concentrations that are sampled at the time and location of the satellite measurements. Our results suggest the inverse model using in situ data are more consistent with the OCO-2 retrievals, compared to those of the GOSAT XCO 2 data, suggesting possible improvements in the present GOSAT retrieval system by better accounting for the degradation correction of the TANSO-FTS. The ACTM_ES2LF simulation shows a slightly weaker seasonal cycle for the meridional profiles of CO 2 fluxes, compared to that from the ACTM_InvF. This difference is revealed by greater ACTM_ES2LF vs GOSAT differences, compared to those of ACTM_InvF vs GOSAT. We also find that the simulated seasonal cycle amplitude of XCO 2 by ACTM_ES2LF are slightly weaker compared to those observed by GOSAT or ACTM_InvF. Using remote sensing based global products of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) over land, we show a weaker sensitivity of MIROC-ES2L biospheric activities to the weather and climate in the tropical regions. Our results clearly suggest the usefulness of XCO 2 measurements by satellite remote sensing for evaluation of large-scale ESMs, which so far remained untested by the sparse in situ data.

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“…In the Arctic, the importance of wetland emissions has been highlighted with the analysis of isotopic data from aircraft, ships, and surface stations (Fisher et al, 2011;O'Shea et al, 2014;France et al, 2016). Field campaigns are also regularly organized to measure the isotopic signatures of various sources (Pisso et al, 2016;McCalley et al, 2014;Fisher et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using δ13CCH4 atmospheric signals

et al. 2019

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Abstract. Recent efforts have brought together bottom-up quantification approaches (inventories and process-based models) and top-down approaches using regional observations of methane atmospheric concentrations through inverse modelling to better estimate the northern high-latitude methane sources. Nevertheless, for both approaches, the relatively small number of available observations in northern high-latitude regions leaves gaps in our understanding of the drivers and distributions of the different types of regional methane sources. Observations of methane isotope ratios, performed with instruments that are becoming increasingly affordable and accurate, could bring new insights on the contributions of methane sources and sinks. Here, we present the source signal that could be observed from methane isotopic 13CH4 measurements if high-resolution observations were available and thus what requirements should be fulfilled in future instrument deployments in terms of accuracy in order to constrain different emission categories. This theoretical study uses the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE driven by different scenarios of isotopic signatures for each regional methane source mix. It is found that if the current network of methane monitoring sites were equipped with instruments measuring the isotopic signal continuously, only sites that are significantly influenced by emission sources could differentiate regional emissions with a reasonable level of confidence. For example, wetland emissions require daily accuracies lower than 0.2 ‰ for most of the sites. Detecting East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) emissions requires accuracies lower than 0.05 ‰ at coastal Russian sites (even lower for other sites). Freshwater emissions would be detectable with an uncertainty lower than 0.1 ‰ for most continental sites. Except Yakutsk, Siberian sites require stringent uncertainty (lower than 0.05 ‰) to detect anthropogenic emissions from oil and gas or coal production. Remote sites such as Zeppelin, Summit, or Alert require a daily uncertainty below 0.05 ‰ to detect any regional sources. These limits vary with the hypothesis on isotopic signatures assigned to the different sources.

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Improved Chemical Tracer Simulation by MIROC4.0-based Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM)

Cited by 62 publications

References 36 publications

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Evaluation of Earth Systems Models and Atmospheric Inversions using Total Column CO2 Observations from GOSAT and OCO-2

Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C<sub>CH4</sub> atmospheric signals

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Improved Chemical Tracer Simulation by MIROC4.0-based Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model (MIROC4-ACTM)

Cited by 62 publications

References 36 publications

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Global Carbon Budget 2018

Evaluation of Earth Systems Models and Atmospheric Inversions using Total Column CO2 Observations from GOSAT and OCO-2

Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using &lt;i&gt;δ&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sup&gt;13&lt;/sup&gt;C&lt;sub&gt;CH4&lt;/sub&gt; atmospheric signals

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Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C<sub>CH4</sub> atmospheric signals