Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO ₂ exchange

Abstract

We present improved estimates of air–sea CO 2 exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO 2 measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (M θe ). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO 2 measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO 2 data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [ Science 374 , 1275–1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θ e , or M θe surfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air–sea CO 2 exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO 2 observations.

No increase is detected and modeled for the seasonal cycle amplitude of δ13C of atmospheric carbon dioxide

“…1). However, observation-based analyses indicate stronger ocean CO 2 uptake in summer than in winter in the Southern Ocean (Jin et al, 2024;Long et al, 2021;Fay et al, 2021) and the northern subpolar gyres, in contrast to results from Bern3D (Fig. 1) and more complex ocean models (Hauck and Völker, 2015) and several Earth System Models from CMIP5 (Majkut et al, 2014) and CMIP6 (Joos et al, 2023).…”