“…As a result, inference on future ESLs becomes indeterminate due to large cascading uncertainties. Additionally, when the AF is used, as in past studies that have relied merely on tide gauge observations (Buchanan et al., 2016, 2017; Rasmussen et al., 2018; Tebaldi et al., 2012), the relationship between MSL and extreme events is only implicitly established through an increase in the location parameter equal to a future SLR scenario, while the extreme value distribution that generates ESLs is not explicitly modeled as it is reliant on factors that evolve over time (Baldan et al., 2022; Ceres et al., 2017; Cheng et al., 2014; Ragno et al., 2019).…”