Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy

Guenette, Justin Damien; Kenworthy, Philip George; Wheeler, Collette Mari

doi:10.1596/37372

Cited by 81 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For example, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted wheat and fertilizer supplies in the world market, with Africa seen as the region most at risk (see [31]). Similarly, trade flows are expected to fall, with the World Trade Organization [55] projecting merchandise trade volume growth of 3% in 2022 compared to an earlier estimate of 4.7%, and approximately twenty percent of global air cargo is affected by airspace bans between Russia and other countries [22]. These have implications for trade, supply chains and foreign direct investment, especially in the agricultural sector due to the interdependencies between them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing in developing countries

Nyiwul

Koirala

2022

Futur Bus J

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The primary sector is vital for growth and sustainable development in emerging countries. The combined effects of COVID-19 and geopolitical uncertainty on capital flows are likely to have profound impacts on many developing countries. In particular, decreased capital inflows into agriculture will negatively affect food security and growth. However, there remain limited literature on the role of capital inflows in this sector. In this paper, we examine the role that foreign capital inflows play in the development of the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors in developing countries. Specifically, we use the panel vector autoregression approach that accounts for endogeneity. Using data from sixteen developing economies, we find that there exists bidirectional causality between foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing and value added in these sectors. These bidirectional relationships reflect a cyclical effect between FDI and value added in the agriculture, forestry and fishing. The effect of FDI on value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing remains positive for up to five years in our model. This implies FDI has a medium- to long-term positive impact on value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The implication of this result is that countries with currently high FDI transaction costs or that have a generally less conducive investment environment can improve agriculture by eliminating these obstacles. This is because FDIs can lead to improved technologies and technical expertise, practices, management and other systems that benefit the host countries.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing in developing countries

Nyiwul

Koirala

2022

Futur Bus J

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“…Both shocks precipitated considerable disruption of the global supply chain (Guénette, Kenworthy & Wheeler 2022), resulting in a period characterised by elevated volatility (the pandemic halted global growth through reduced economic activity, and the war affected various commodity prices because of e.g. severe economic sanctions).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metal price behaviour during recent crises: COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Nest

Vuuren

2023

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences

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Orientation: Commodities are a prominent feature of the global economy. A substantial component of the income and welfare of both commodity-producing and commodity-consuming countries is highly dependent on the prices of commodities, such as metals. Metal prices are driven by economic growth and provide important insight into the state of the global economy: this behaviour is inextricably linked with the transitory shocks.Research purpose: Understanding recent metal price behaviour provides information about the economic implications of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as well as the Russia–Ukraine conflict. This research engages with the notion of the ongoing upward swing of the post-2000 super-cycle in the metals market.Motivation for the study: An analysis of metal price behaviour during COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict describes the consequences of market shocks on commodity prices and examines the role played by super-cycles within metal markets. This work measures the optimal performances of portfolios comprising precious and nonprecious metals.Research approach/design and method: Portfolio optimisation using Lagrangian calculus under various constraints. The article argues that transitory shocks from pandemics and conflicts have a positive relationship with risk–return profiles of relevant portfolios.Main findings: A positive correlation was found between transitory shocks and prices of both precious and nonprecious metals. There is also evidence regarding the continuation of the post-2000 super-cycle in the metals market.Practical/managerial implications: Better knowledge of these relationships allows commodity traders to confidently assert that metal commodities will deliver healthy returns at moderate risk levels during periods that are characterised by different transitory shocks. Metals exist and exhibit safe haven properties during periods governed by economic uncertainty.Contribution/value add: Metals have exhibited strong economic performances in an economic landscape where little has flourished. This consequently affirms their importance and outlines their investment viability during volatile and uncertain periods.

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“…2 The flux of research about public debt effects is expected to be intensified as the 2020 crisis of COVID-19 added more pressures on the government finances leading to high public debt and deficit ratios worldwide. Moreover, the 2021-2022 signs of economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis leads to increased inflation expectations, which are fueled by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, thus leading to reverse the long-term tendency of low interest rates and leading to high risks and fears from servicing high public debt especially in emerging and developing countries (Celasun et al, 2022;Guénette et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A survey of public debt effects in theory-based models

Bentour

Guillaumin

2022

Preprint

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This paper is dedicated to the assessment of government debt effects in the theoretical models. We made an inventory of the most important contributions, modelling the effect of public debt on the behaviour of economic agents. We particularly discussed the public debt effects in (1) the infinitely lived agents (ILA) and the overlapping generations (OLG) models, (2) the endogenous growth models (3) the new political economy of fiscal policy, and, (4) the new Keynesian models. Finally, we conclude with two critiques of Mankiw (2000) for the ILA and OLG models and Chari et al. (2009) for the new Keynesian models.JEL Classification: B22, B23, C51, H54, H63.

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Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy

Cited by 81 publications

References 8 publications

Role of foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing in developing countries

Role of foreign direct investments in agriculture, forestry and fishing in developing countries

Metal price behaviour during recent crises: COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

A survey of public debt effects in theory-based models

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