Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China's Power Consumption: A comprehensive Analysis Derived from Monthly Electricity Consumption Forecasts

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly altered the total and pattern of electricity consumption across Chinese industries and households. However, current research has not fully and accurately measured the impact of the pandemic. This paper builds a novel discrete gray seasonal model (referred to as the FDDGSM model) to predict the scenario of different domestic electricity-consuming sectors and residential electricity consumption without a pandemic backdrop, by comparing it with the actual electricity consumption in 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's electricity consumption is better revealed. Through empirical analysis, the following conclusions are reached in this study: (1) The novel discrete grey season model shows more stable and accurate characteristics in forecasting time series with seasonal trends. (2) The pandemic did not significantly impact electricity consumption in primary industries and households, while actual usage in secondary and tertiary industries was significantly lower than expected in a non-pandemic scenario. (3) The impact on secondary and tertiary industries varied in magnitude and duration, and they differed in the rate of recovery in electricity consumption.