Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

Youngs, Robert R.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.

doi:10.1016/0148-9062(86)90651-0

Cited by 168 publications

(259 citation statements)

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“…The reason for doing so, is to be able to use the fault lines instead of area sources and at the same time take into consideration the subduction by including two dipping planes (areasources) with the average dip of the Benioff zone in the area. Of course, in this case, the results reflect the drawbacks of both models but the combination of models is an approach used by many authors (Youngs and Coppersmith, 1985). If the hypothesis of a seismic gap is valid (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of paleoseismology in seismic hazard analysis in NW Crete and Kythira strait (Greece)

et al. 2001

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The scope of this paper is to study how geological data contribute to hazard analysis and the extent to which they can be incorporated in the existing hazard models. For this reason the study area was divided into area source zones and the paleoseismological data collected and studied on the Kera fault zone, in Chania, Crete, were taken into account. The seismic hazard was calculated with CRISIS99, using a combination of the Poissonian and the characteristic earthquake model. The data from the Kera fault affect slightly the calculation of seismic hazard. It is suggested that more paleoseismological data and a good attenuation relationship for the area, would lead to the development of hazard models capable to incorporate geological information and it would improve the quality of seismic hazard analysis.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of paleoseismology in seismic hazard analysis in NW Crete and Kythira strait (Greece)

et al. 2001

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“…The Characteristic earthquake of a fault recurrence in PSHA is commonly modelled as the Characteristic Earthquake Model (Youngs and Coppersmith 1985). This model has a uniform distribution for the large earthquakes range and an exponential distribution for the smaller size earthquakes.…”

Section: Q T T T Q T Q T T T F D F D R T R T T H Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The models include an exponential distribution with the b c -value for the large magnitude earthquakes and an exponential distribution with the b-value equal to 1.0 for the smaller magnitude earthquakes. An additional constraint is done by following the Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) characteristic model setting. The comparison result shows that reducing the b cvalue in the exponential distribution increases in the hazard contributions of a large earthquake.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis Of B C -Value For the Characteristic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In reality, there is increasing evidence that using the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquake, generated from an individual fault, is more appropriate than using the Gutenberg-Richter relation (Wesnousky and Scholz 1983;Schwartz and Coppersmith 1984;Youngs and Coppersmith 1985;Hong and Guo 1995;Parsons 2005Parsons , 2006Parsons and Geist 2009). Figure 3 shows that the characteristic earthquake model indicates a non-linear earthquake frequency-magnitude relation dominated by the characteristic events (Schwartz and Coppersmith 1984;Youngs and Coppersmith 1985).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 3 shows that the characteristic earthquake model indicates a non-linear earthquake frequency-magnitude relation dominated by the characteristic events (Schwartz and Coppersmith 1984;Youngs and Coppersmith 1985). In the frequency-magnitude relationship, a very low b-value is required in the moderate-magnitude range to reconcile the data throughout the range of magnitudes (Wesnousky 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

Chang¹,

Loh²,

Jean³

2017

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944) exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault) are short.

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Interseismic coupling, seismic potential, and earthquake recurrence on the southern front of the Eastern Alps (NE Italy)

2014

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Here we use continuous GPS observations to document the geodetic strain accumulation across the South‐Eastern Alps (NE Italy). We estimate the interseismic coupling on the intracontinental collision thrust fault and discuss the seismic potential and earthquake recurrence. We invert the GPS velocities using the back slip approach to simultaneously estimate the relative angular velocity and the degree of interseismic coupling on the thrust fault that separates the Eastern Alps and the Venetian‐Friulian plain. Comparison between the rigid rotation predicted motion and the shortening observed across the area indicates that the South‐Eastern Alpine thrust front absorbs about 70% of the total convergence between the Adria and Eurasia plates. The coupling is computed on a north dipping fault following the continuous external seismogenic thrust front of the South‐Eastern Alps. The modeled thrust fault is currently locked from the surface to a depth of ≈10 km. The transition zone between locked and creeping portions of the fault roughly corresponds with the belt of microseismicity parallel and to the north of the mountain front. The estimated moment deficit rate is 1.3 ± 0.4 × 1017 Nm/yr. The comparison between the estimated moment deficit and that released historically by the earthquakes suggests that to account for the moment deficit the following two factors or their combination should be considered: (1) a significant part of the observed interseismic coupling is released aseismically and (2) infrequent “large” events with long return period (> 1000 years) and with magnitudes larger than the value assigned to the largest historical events (Mw≈ 6.7).

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Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

Cited by 168 publications

References 0 publications

Implications of paleoseismology in seismic hazard analysis in NW Crete and Kythira strait (Greece)

Implications of paleoseismology in seismic hazard analysis in NW Crete and Kythira strait (Greece)

Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

Interseismic coupling, seismic potential, and earthquake recurrence on the southern front of the Eastern Alps (NE Italy)

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