Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk

Elkouk, Ahmed; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115378

Cited by 21 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…As poor people often live in risky areas and have limited capacity to adapt, they might be more exposed or more vulnerable to natural disasters than wealthier people [41][42] . Numerous studies have reported that climate change might have unequal impacts on people with different levels of annual income [43][44] . We therefore examine whether the CDHW risks and corresponding socioeconomic exposure are different between poorer and richer subgroups (refer to Supplementary Text 2 for identification).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

et al. 2023

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Compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events are one of the worst climatic stressors for global sustainable development. However, the physical mechanisms behind CDHW and their impacts on socio-ecosystem productivity remain poorly understood. Here, using simulations from a large climate-hydrology model ensemble of 111 members, we demonstrate that the frequency of extreme CDHWs is projected to increase by ten-fold globally under the highest emissions scenario, along with a disproportionate negative impact on vegetation and socioeconomic productivity by the late 21 st century. By combining satellite observations, field measurements and reanalysis, we show that terrestrial water storage and temperature are negatively coupled, likely driven by similar atmospheric conditions (e.g., water vapor deficit and energy demand).Limits on water availability are likely to play a more important role in constraining the terrestrial carbon sink than temperature extremes, and over 90% of the global population and GDP could be exposed to increasing CDHW risks in the future, with more severe impacts in poorer or rural areas. Our results provide crucial insights towards assessing and mitigating adverse effects of compound hazards on ecosystems and human well-being. Main textDrought and heatwaves are driven by complex interactions between physical processes and often initiated by similar synoptic circulation anomalies 1-2 , and are thus likely to occur simultaneously [3][4] . As droughts are occurring more frequently and atmospheric warming triggers stronger land-atmosphere feedback, the risks of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events are intensified across the globe 5-6 , amplifying adverse impacts on socioeconomic sustainability and human well-being 7-8 . CDHW can for example exacerbate vegetation mortality, which, in turn, may cascade into other hazards, such as wildfires and crop yield 3 losses [9][10][11] ; they can also jeopardize electric grid reliability and adversely affect a wide range of natural and human-made systems 12 . In the U.S. alone, three CDHWs between 2011 and 2013 caused economic damages of roughly $60 billion 6 . How CDHWs regulate ecosystem productivity is also an important issue. The terrestrial biosphere acts as a prominent sink for anthropogenic CO2, sequestering about 30% of annual CO2 emissions [13][14] . However, climatic extremes can adversely affect its ability to function as a sink; for example, the 2003 European drought and heatwave reduced plant productivity by ~30%, thereby cancelling four years of CO2 net uptake over Europe 15 . After severe CDHWs, plant recovery usually lags owing to reduced growth, non-reversible losses in hydraulic conductance or depletion of carbon reserves [16][17] . This lagged growth may in turn increase vulnerability to another CDHW if it occurs before complete recovery 8 , potentially limiting the capacity of continents to act as a carbon sink [18][19] .With growing evidence about these damages, CDHWs are increasingly regarded as one of the worst climatic stressors to global soc...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

et al. 2023

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“…For example, the geographical distribution of these increases in the risk from CDHEs to croplands was also projected in major crop‐growing regions (He et al, 2022; Potopová et al, 2021), such as eastern United States and Europe, suggesting potential threats to food production in these areas. This highlights the need for future risk management of CDHEs that incorporate both social and agricultural sectors, as underscored by recent studies (Dudley et al, 2022; Elkouk et al, 2022; Gu et al, 2020; Meza et al, 2020). We also used the duration as the hazard indicator and results showed similar patterns of changes in the hazard but with some difference in risk changes across certain regions (Figures S11–S13).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

Zhang,

Hao,

Jiang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Owing to their potentially amplified impacts, compound dry‐hot events (CDHEs) can pose serious risk to human life and ecosystems. However, studies have mainly assessed the risk related to CDHEs from the hazard or exposure perspective, while a system risk assessment incorporating the hazard, exposure and vulnerability at the global scale is lacking. This study assessed the risk from CDHEs based on model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models for different future periods, including near term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100) periods, under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Using cropland and population as exposure indicators, the risk from CDHEs to human and agricultural systems was investigated by combing the hazard (the frequency or duration of CDHEs) and vulnerability indicators (GDP and irrigation fraction). Results showed a widespread increase in the risk to human and agricultural systems (represented by the populations and cropland) under the two scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) across the globe, particularly in North America, Europe, Africa and Oceania for population and northern South America, large parts of Europe, and southeast China for cropland. The median values of relative changes in risk to human (cropland) systems were 136%, 213% and 207% (102%, 161% and 225%) for the near term, mid‐term and long term, respectively. The increase in hazards was shown to primarily contribute to the increased population risk. This study may provide useful insights for future risk management of compound extremes in human and agricultural systems.

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“…Since 1960, most continents have experienced large-scale droughts of varying degrees, and approximately 12 million ha of land had lost production capacity due to drought every year (Sun et al, 2022). This trend will become more pronounced in the 21st century, with the frequency of global droughts increasing by approximately 29% since 2000, affecting approximately 1.4 billion people (Elkouk et al, 2022). China, as a country with a strong agricultural base, is highly susceptible to climate change impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction and assessment of meteorological drought characteristics in China based on a future climate model

Huang,

Liu,

Jia

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Under the background of a warm and humid climate, predicting and evaluating the future pattern of wet and dry change characteristics in watersheds is of great research significance. Based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory earth system coupling model and GFDL‒ESM2M climate model, which is highly applicable in China, the characteristics of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) variations in China at annual and monthly scales was assessed based on downscaled climate data under four typical representative concentration pathway scenarios. The results are as follows: (1) In the future, the annual scale meteorological drought trend in China will become more "aridity", and the monthly scale dry and wet changes will be non-uniform. With the increase of carbon dioxide emission concentration, the proportion of regional aridity in China will be increased in the future. (2) The proportion of wetting area will decrease, and extreme weather events are more likely to occur. In the future, the drought duration in China will mainly be 1–4 months. (3) The return period of drought in large areas of the country will be 1–50 years, and the return period in some western regions even exceed 500 years.

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Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk

Cited by 21 publications

References 60 publications

Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

Prediction and assessment of meteorological drought characteristics in China based on a future climate model

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