Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Bakun, William H.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Dost, B.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Harris, Ruth; Ji, Chen; Johnston, M. J. S.; Langbein, John; Lienkaemper, James J.; Michael, Andrew J.; Murray, J. R.; Nadeau, R. M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Reichle, Michael; Roeloffs, Evelyn; Shakal, A. F.; Simpson, Robert W.; Waldhauser, F.

doi:10.1038/nature04067

Cited by 360 publications

(270 citation statements)

References 38 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

245

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…[10] Since the aftershocks of the Parkfield mainshock span about 35 km along the SAF [Bakun et al, 2005], it is difficult to assign magnitudes to aftershocks identified from waveforms at only one or a few nearby stations. Without a common magnitude calibration and threshold magnitude, a direct comparison of the number of events listed in the NCSN catalog and identified from the high-pass-filtered envelope is not feasible.…”

Section: Aftershock Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake

Peng¹,

Vidale²,

Houston³

2006

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

[1] We analyze the seismicity rate immediately after the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake from nearsource seismograms. By scrutinizing high-frequency signals, we can distinguish mainshock coda from early aftershocks occurring as soon as 30 s after the mainshock. We find, as expected, that a significant fraction of aftershocks in the first few hours after the main shock are missing in the Northern California Seismic Network catalog. We observe a steady rate of aftershocks in the first 130 s, followed by a power-law decay of aftershock activity. Thus, there appears to be a distinct early stage of aftershock activity that does not fit the Omori's law with a constant p value, a phenomenon that we refer to as Early Aftershock Deficiency (EAD). Our observation suggests that mainshock rupture and aftershocks are distinct processes, not described by a single Omori's law. Several physical models of aftershocks can explain the EAD.

show abstract

Section: Aftershock Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[5] Here, we systematically analyze the early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake [Bakun et al, 2005] by scrutinizing high-frequency signals from seismograms recorded near the source region. The mainshock ruptured the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (SAF) (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake

Peng¹,

Vidale²,

Houston³

2006

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…[3] The Parkfield region is an ideal location to search for a connection between seismicity and precipitation because the SAF in this region is seismically active [Bakun et al, 2005]; an extensive seismic network provides detailed earthquake data [Bakun and Lindh, 1985;Bakun et al, 2005;Roeloffs and Langbein, 1994]; precipitation rates are relatively low (>0.5 m/y on average); the fault is believed to be extremely weak [Zoback et al, 1987;Rice, 1992;Hickman and Zoback, 2004;Townend and Zoback, 2004]; and the characteristics of microearthquakes in the region have been studied extensively [Poley et al, 1987;Rubin et al, 1999;Nadeau and McEvilly, 2004]. Any relation between rainfall and earthquake occurrence in this environment would imply a stress threshold for triggered seismicity that is lower than commonly accepted [Harris, 1998].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual modulation of seismicity along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA

Christiansen

Hurwitz

Ingebritsen

2007

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We analyze seismic data from the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield, California, to test for annual modulation in seismicity rates. We use statistical analyses to show that seismicity is modulated with an annual period in the creeping section of the fault and a semiannual period in the locked section of the fault. Although the exact mechanism for seasonal triggering is undetermined, it appears that stresses associated with the hydrologic cycle are sufficient to fracture critically stressed rocks either through pore‐pressure diffusion or crustal loading/unloading. These results shed additional light on the state of stress along the SAF, indicating that hydrologically induced stress perturbations of ∼2 kPa may be sufficient to trigger earthquakes.

show abstract

“…Although there is a fairly large variation in this threshold distance within the literature, recent findings by environmental scientists provide key insights for establishing working estimates. For instance, Bakun et al (2005) calculated that the mean intensity of ground shaking during an earthquake dropped by one-third of the highest intensity when the distance from the fault line increased by 30 km or more. At this point, the peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) value of an earthquake fell below 0.1 g-a threshold of weak to moderate land shaking that only lightly damages buildings-although the damage may also (Forman and McDonald, 2007).…”

Section: Data Collection and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Are master plans effective in limiting development in China's disaster-prone areas?

Kim

Rowe

2013

Landscape and Urban Planning

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

HighlightsThe effectiveness of adopting urban master plans to limit development in disaster-prone areas was empirically tested for China's Yangtze River Delta region over the past thirty years.Environmental risk modeling was conducted to estimate the cumulative scope of urban built-up land located in highly hazardous areas.Master plans, especially when the pattern of urban development shows high compliance with master plans' preservation zoning, have a significant effect on limiting development in high-risk areas.The effect of master plans was not significant in a region vulnerable to high risks from multiple environmental hazards.Locational adjustment through municipal planning may avoid large-scale property losses from unexpected environmental hazards during the rapid development phase of a city.

show abstract

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Cited by 360 publications

References 38 publications

Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake

Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake

Annual modulation of seismicity along the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA

Are master plans effective in limiting development in China's disaster-prone areas?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About