Implementing the NHS England Long Term Plan for stroke: how should reperfusion services be configured? A modelling study

Abstract

Objectives: To guide policy when planning reperfusion thrombolysis (IVT) and thrombectomy (MT) services for acute stroke in England, focussing on the choice between ‘mothership’ (direct conveyance to an MT centre) and ‘drip-and-ship' (secondary transfer for MT after local IVT) provision and the impact of bypassing local acute stroke centres.Methods: Computer modelling was used to estimate the likely outcomes from reperfusion therapies, along with admission numbers to units, based on expected times to IVT and MT.Results: Without pre-hospital selection for LAO, 94% of the population of England live in areas where the greatest clinical benefit accrues from direct conveyance to an IVT/MT centre. If this model was followed then net benefit from reperfusion is predicted to be increased from 31 to 34 additional disability-free outcomes / 1,000 admissions. However, this policy produces unsustainable admission numbers at these centres, and depletes all but 19 IVT-only units of all stroke admissions. Implementing a maximum permitted additional travel time to bypass an IVT-only unit, or using a pre-hospital test for LAO, both increase net benefit over the current drip-and-ship model, but produce a similar destabilising effect on acute systems of care. Use of IVT-only units manage admission numbers to IVT/MT centres.Conclusions: The mothership model reduces time to MT at the cost of increased time to IVT, but the benefit of faster MT is predicted to lead to a modest improvement in overall outcomes. Providing a sustainable national system of acute stroke care requires a hybrid of mothership and drip-and-ship provision.