Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints

Wiebe, Kirsten S.; Bjelle, Eivind Lekve; Többen, Johannes; Wood, Richard

doi:10.1186/s40008-018-0118-y

Cited by 58 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In the light of the EU's bioeconomy strategy (European Commission 2012) it can be expected that non-food uses further drive cropland expansions in some of the world's most vulnerable ecosystems in the future. To further investigate this, our approach here, could be combined with a forward-looking MRIO analysis (Wiebe et al 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel maximum entropy approach to hybrid monetary-physical supply-chain modelling and its application to biodiversity impacts of palm oil embodied in consumption

Többen

Wiebe

Verones

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The environmental and social consequences of clearing tropical forests for palm oil and soybean monoculture have been analyzed in a number of studies and are widely recognized. Some initiatives and studies have examined portions of the supply chain from the perspective of individual companies and stages in the supply chain. We complement this work by providing a consistent, detailed, global trade-linked analysis of the four major vegetable oils, connecting land use for production and its biodiversity impact, through global supply chains, to final consumers. To this end, we develop a global model by fully integrating FAO's physical supply-utilization accounts into the environmentally extended multiregional input-output model EXIOBASE. Global supply chains are linked with the life-cycle impact assessment model LC-Impact to assess biodiversity impact of land use via global maps of oil crop cultivation. For the period 2000-2010, we find significant substitution of domestically produced oils with relatively low biodiversity impacts with Indonesian palm oil and Brazilian soybean oil for the major consuming countries, China, Europe and the US. Whereas soybean oil remains the vegetable oil with the largest impact on biodiversity at a global scale, biodiversity footprints of palm oil have grown substantially larger in the period 2000-2010, driven by demand from Europe and China. Our results suggest that demand-side policies focused on specific oils, such as palm oil, might lead to switching oils and unintended shifts of environmental impacts.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel maximum entropy approach to hybrid monetary-physical supply-chain modelling and its application to biodiversity impacts of palm oil embodied in consumption

Többen

Wiebe

Verones

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…), derived from energy transition scenarios (Codina Gironès et al, 2015), with a national IO table to simulate the socio-economic impacts of such transition. Modifying IO tables according to exogenous scenarios for simulation purposes has already been applied to evaluate renewable energy policies for example (Wiebe et al, 2018). Macroeconomic variables are also accounted for in modifying the intermediate consumption coefficients of the IO matrix.…”

Section: Modifications To the Input-output Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The new IO model has been constructed for the target year based on detailed scenarios at the level of economic activities (NACE classification). We build upon similar work by adjusting final demand and value-added vectors (Garrett-Peltier, 2017;Wiebe et al, 2018) but expand the approach by adding new activities in the value chains of RE, energy efficiency (EE) and transportation. We also improve upon the American JEDI model by accounting for changes in the structure of the economy and in particular by considering imports and exports, which can change significantly when shifting to low carbon technologies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hire fast, fire slow: the employment benefits of energy transitions

Füllemann

Moreau

Vielle

et al. 2019

Economic Systems Research

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The transition towards decarbonized and efficient energy systems has broad socioeconomic implications. We estimate the potential impacts on employment from efforts in energy efficiency in industry, transport and buildings as well as substituting local renewable energy sources for fossil fuels. Both energy supply and demand are accounted for. We use a hybrid approach that combines national energy transition scenarios with input-output tables, adjusted for new energy and non-energy activities. We conclude that the transition has a net positive impact on employment as illustrated by the case of Switzerland. The local and decentralized nature of energy efficiency and renewables retains a greater share of value-added domestically than does a supply chain of fossil fuels. Moreover, we find that more jobs are created in demand-side activities, such as building renovation, than in renewable energy generation. Positive impacts on jobs from spillover effects in all non-energy activities are also found.

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“…Note that the results here are for our baseline scenario, in which constant GEE intensities over time are assumed. The GEE intensities are likely to decrease during future decades, as a result of technology improvements in materials production (Gibon et al., 2015; Wiebe, Bjelle, Többen, & Wood, 2018) and low‐carbon electricity generation (IEA, 2015). The magnitude of such changes is hard to predict and therefore highly uncertain.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal analysis of the material flows and embodied greenhouse gas emissions of a neighborhood building stock

Lausselet

Urrego

Resch

et al. 2020

J of Industrial Ecology

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Low‐energy building standards shift environmental impacts from the operational to the embodied emissions, making material efficiency (ME) important for climate mitigation. To help quantify the mitigation potential of ME strategies, we developed a model that simulates the temporal material flows and greenhouse gas embodied emissions (GEEs) of the material use in the construction and renovation activities of a neighborhood by combining life‐cycle assessment with dynamic material‐flow analysis methods. We applied our model on a “zero emission neighborhood” project, under development from 2019 to 2080 and found an average material use of 1,049 kg/m2, an in‐use material stock of 43 metric tons/cap, and GEEs of 294 kgCO2e/m2. Although 52% of the total GEEs are caused by material use during initial construction, the remaining 48% are due to material replacements in a larger timeframe of 45 years. Hence, it is urgent to act now and design for ME over the whole service life of buildings. GEEs occurring far into the future will, however, have a reduced intensity because of future technology improvements, which we found to have a mitigation potential of 20%. A combination of ME strategies at different points in time will best mitigate overall GEEs. In the planning phase, encouraging thresholds on floor area per inhabitant can be set, materials with low GEEs must be chosen, and the buildings should be designed for ME and in a way that allows for re‐use of elements. Over time, good maintenance of buildings will postpone the renovation needs and extend the building lifetime. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

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Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints

Cited by 58 publications

References 43 publications

A novel maximum entropy approach to hybrid monetary-physical supply-chain modelling and its application to biodiversity impacts of palm oil embodied in consumption

A novel maximum entropy approach to hybrid monetary-physical supply-chain modelling and its application to biodiversity impacts of palm oil embodied in consumption

Hire fast, fire slow: the employment benefits of energy transitions

Temporal analysis of the material flows and embodied greenhouse gas emissions of a neighborhood building stock

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