Implementation of Strategic Infrastructure Projects: Modeling of Effects and Results

Abstract

The article describes the modelling of strategic infrastructure project effects and results using methods of analysing direct and indirect effects and helping to determine the feasibility of railway infrastructure project implementation. Neglecting this fact significantly reduces the overall efficiency of infrastructure projects, and in some cases leads to the wrong decisions that reject project implementation.Investigations made by authors allow to identify, classify and quantitatively estimate the direct and indirect effects from the implementation of infrastructure projects, including integrated assessment of budgetary efficiency and an assessment of economic effects for the development of territories.Among indirect effects the special attention was paid to the multimodal effects resulting from the redistribution of passenger and cargo flows and more rational capacity of the transportation system. The attention was paid to the multiplier effects caused in related sectors of the economy, agglomeration effects leading to increased connectivity of urban and suburban areas and the corresponding growth in employment, investment and productivity, the effects of optimising subsidies, etc.Scenario forecasting procedures were used within the presented investigations. Macroeconomic effects, bottlenecks in the railway system impact on the level of undertransportation of goods as well as price arbitrage were determined for various scenarios.