Mammographic screening programs for breast cancer have been implemented in many countries and opportunistic mammographies are taken as a diagnostic method. The consequences of the wide application of this technology to age-incidence relationships in breast cancer have not been clarified nor is its effect on familial risk estimation. It was assumed that if screening and diagnostic methods bias familial risk, the highest risk should be noted for sisters diagnosed close in time. Age-specific incidence data were collected from the EUCAN database and from cancer registries of Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Swedish Family-Cancer Database was used to analyse risks for breast cancer among sisters, depending on the time since the first sister was diagnosed with breast cancer. Age-incidence patterns deviated between Germany, with low mammographic coverage, and Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK and France, with variable levels of coverage. The annual age-incidence patterns in Finland, Norway and Sweden changed in concert with the targeted mammographic service. The risk of breast cancer for women with an affected sister, diagnosed between ages 50 to 64 years, was significantly higher within the same or the subsequent year of the sister's diagnosis compared to 51 years, accounting for 7.3% of all patients. The ordered increase in age-specific incidence of breast cancer in the women targeted by screening studied suggests that mammographic screening is one important factor responsible for the shift of the age of onset for breast cancer towards middle age. However, the effects on the estimation of familial risk are so far small. ' 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.Key words: breast cancer; mammographic screening; age-incidence; familial risk Population screening for a cancer may cause major changes in its total and age-specific incidence, which has been witnessed for cervical cancer. 1,2 If the risk factors of a cancer remain constant, an effective screening should reduce disease-specific mortality. However, at least initially, the detection of asymptomatic tumours may cause an increase in incidence in the screened population, ''a screening effect'', which may either be due to an earlier diagnosis of tumours (lead time shift) or diagnosis of tumours that would never have been detected (true overdiagnosis). 3 In the course of introduction of screening technologies for breast cancer, the issue of overdiagnosis has been of focal interest and the subject of an unsettled debate, which we do not aim to address in the present work. [3][4][5][6][7] On the other hand, less attention has been paid to the changes in age-incidence relationships; data from Sweden and Norway show large increases in age groups that are targeted to screening. 6,8 These changes have taken place at the time when there has been an overall increase in the incidence of breast cancer in all the Western countries. For any cancer for which effective screening methods or methods for diagnosing early or latent tumours are being used, the possible interference with the concept of fami...