Implementation and designing of temporal and spatial early warning model for HIV/AIDS spread on sex by agent based modeling

Abstract

In this article, it is explored that how to design and implement a temporal and spatial early warning model for AIDS spread on sex in Kunming (Yunnan province) by using ABM and making spatial analysis by developing in ArcEngine and ArcSDE. Obviously, the method of integration between ABM models and GIS technology is also clarified as a key technology in the text. As a result, based on a spreading condition of AIDS in Kunming from 2006 to 2007, we have built a model of AIDS transmission on sex that could run in REPAST to estimate the mass of 4 classes people of AIDS including CSW, CSC, OP and Gay in future. Meanwhile, a spatial analysis model, which take an analysis from ArcEngine and get the resulting data from ArcSDE, would also make an early warning response on quantity, speed and infection rate of AIDS transmission on a space distribution view.