Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp11068.pdf
Non-technical SummaryGerman electricity submarkets for residential customers have been liberalized by the end of the 1990s. Since then a large number of new providers has entered former monopolistic markets, which are first and foremost retail markets. However, only a low share of households in Germany has switched to a competitive contract. Following the Monitoringbericht 2008 of the German energy regulator Bundesnetzagentur about 60 percent of households have not switched to an alternative contract, even ten years after the liberalization. These households are served with incumbents' standard contracts, the so-called "Grundversorgungsverträge". Usually, standard contracts are offered at significantly higher prices than competitive contracts due to high customers' switching costs. In this paper we follow the question how the standard contract price or the price-cost markup for this contract could be used to influence market structure.Following the Limit Pricing theory, we show that retail competition in terms of the number of competitors depends on the standard contract price and that the provider of this contract type might use the price as an instrument to affect competition in its home market ceteris paribus. By reducing the standard contract price customers' net benefits of switching to an alternative contract could be reduced. Thus, market entry might be not profitable for less efficient supplier. We would then expect a lower number of electricity suppliers in markets with lower standard contract prices. Whether the low-price strategy is profit-increasing for the incumbent depends on the behavior of the customers: With a lower standard contract price also the price-cost markup is lower. On the other hand, lower numbers of customers are willing to switch to competitive contracts.We analyze the limit pricing idea using a simultaneous equations approach and employ data for all geographically separated German retail electricity submarkets. We control for alternative regional impact characteristics such as customer concentration, purchasing power, grid characteristics as well as the distribution charge, which providers have to pay for electricity provision in a market.Our estimation results show a significant effect of the standard contract price (or price-cost markup) on the number of offered contracts and number of the competitors offering contracts to low cons...