Data from the UKPDS (U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study) indicate a continuous decline in -cell function in patients with type 2 diabetes. We studied longitudinal changes in -cell function (follow-up of 5.2 years) in subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and type 2 diabetes, using acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin sensitivity index (S i ) from a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test among African-American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic white subjects aged 40 -69 years. At baseline, decreasing levels of both S i and AIR (either unadjusted or adjusted for S i ) mirrored deteriorating glucose tolerance status at baseline and at follow-up. A different pattern was found with respect to longitudinal changes; S i declined in each glucose tolerance category, ranging from ؊0.81 ؋10 ؊4 min ؊1 ⅐ U
؊1⅐ ml ؊1 in NGT at baseline and NGT at follow-up (NGT/NGT) to ؊1.06 ؋10 ؊4 in NGT/diabetes, whereas the directional change in AIR principally determined the glucose tolerance status at follow-up. In NGT/NGT S i decreased by 35% and AIR increased by 34%. Results were similar in each of the three ethnic groups. These data shed light on the natural course of -cell function; over 5.2 years, mean insulin sensitivity declined in each glucose tolerance category. The change in AIR, however, principally determined glucose tolerance status at follow-up; NGT was maintained by a compensatory increase in insulin secretion. Failure to increase insulin secretion led to IGT, and a decrease in insulin secretion led to overt diabetes. This data may have important implications for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes 55:1114 -1120, 2006 I mpaired insulin secretion and impaired insulin action (increased insulin resistance) are the two major components contributing to the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (1-3); their complex relationship has been mathematically described as a curvilinear relationship (4 -6). Longitudinal studies indicate that compromised -cell function is detectable in pre-diabetic individuals long before the onset of actual type 2 diabetes (1,7). The natural course of -cell function over time, however, is poorly understood, and published data are scarce. A longitudinal study in Pima Indians highlighted the importance of declining -cell function in individuals transitioning from normal glucose tolerance (NGT) to impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and IGT to diabetes, respectively (3). In the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), a continuous decline in -cell function in patients with type 2 diabetes, irrespective of glucose-lowering treatment, was demonstrated (8). No data on the natural course of -cell function is currently available in a large population, across different ethnic groups, and using a direct measure of insulin secretion. Therefore, we studied longitudinal changes in -cell function over 5.2 years by acute insulin response (AIR) relative to insulin sensitivity index (S i ), as assessed from a frequently sampled intravenous gluco...