Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space

Ge, Yong; Zhang, Wenbin; Liu, Haiyan; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.; Hu, Maogui; Wu, Xilin; Song, Yongze; Ruktanonchai, Nick W.; Yan, Wei; Cleary, Eimear; Feng, Luzhao; Li, Zhongjie; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Mengxiao; Tatem, Andrew J.; Wang, Jinfeng; Lai, Shengjie

doi:10.1101/2021.03.31.21254702

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…A study investigating the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries finds the most effective NPI blends change from gathering restrictions, facial coverings and school closures to facial coverings, gathering restrictions and international travel restrictions in the second wave. It concludes that the impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts [76]. According to a studying on 114 subnational areas in 7 European countries, the combined effectiveness of 17 NPIs on reducing local cases and deaths is still statistically significant, but the effect sizes in the second wave were smaller relative to that in the first wave [33].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

et al. 2021

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We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]). This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

et al. 2021

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“…PCR-confirmed cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 mutations were obtained from Santé Publique France 1 for the 13 metropolitan French regions. The data includes the number of tests that underwent the screening for a selection of mutations in their amino acid sequence.…”

Section: Data Acquisition and Preprocessingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite unprecedented control measures and availability of several vaccines, the virus persisted in populations and evolved into different lineages. These SARS-CoV2 mutations have allowed a classification into different variants that have caused further isolated or overlapping epidemic waves in many countries [1]. In particular, variants with increased transmissibility, increased severity or immune escape were classified as variants of concern (VOC) and named after the letters of the Greek alphabet.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021-22: a status-based multi-variant model

Haschka

Vergu

Roche

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: SARS-CoV-2 is a rapidly spreading disease affecting human life and the economy on a global scale. The disease has caused so far more then 5.5 million deaths. The omicron outbreak that emerged in Botswana in the south of Africa spread around the globe at further increased rates, and caused unprecedented SARS-CoV-2 infection incidences in several countries. At the start of December 2021 the first omicron cases were reported in France. Methods: In this paper we investigate the contagiousness of this novel variant relatively to the delta variant that was also in circulation in France at that time. Using a dynamic multi-variant model accounting for cross-immunity through a status-based approach, we analyze screening data reported by Sante Publique France over 13 metropolitan French regions between 1st of December 2021 and the 30th of January 2022. During the investigated period, the delta variant was replaced by omicron in all metropolitan regions in approximately three weeks. The analysis conducted retrospectively allows us to consider the whole replacement time window and compare regions with different times of omicron introduction and baseline levels of variants' transmission potential. As large uncertainties regarding cross-immunity among variants persist, uncertainty analyses were carried out to assess its impact on our estimations. Results: Assuming that 80% of the population was immunized against delta, a cross delta/omicron cross-immunity of 25% and omicron generation time was 3.5 days, the relative strength of omicron to delta, expressed as the ratio of their respective reproduction rates, R[omicron]/R[delta], was found to range between 1.51 and 1.86 across regions. Uncertainty analysis on epidemiological parameters led to R[omicron]/R[delta] ranging over 1.57-2.13 when averaged over the metropolitan French regions, weighting by population size. Conclusions: Upon introduction, omicron spread rapidly through the French territory and showed a high fitness relative to delta. We documented considerable geographical heterogeneities on the spreading dynamics. The historical reconstruction of variant emergence dynamics provide valuable ground knowledge to face future variant emergence events.

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“…Global transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first detected in January 2020, when cases outside of China were reported in France, Japan, Thailand, the USA and several other countries. Since then, over the course of the pandemic, almost every country in the world has experienced one or more waves of epidemic community transmission [1][2][3]. High levels of COVID-19 cases have threatened to overwhelm healthcare systems in many countries, and in some cases have collapsed them, compounding the infection fatality rate of the virus and causing high excessive mortality [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A year of living distantly: global trends in the use of stay-at-home orders over the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021

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During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were the main pillar of defence to protect human society against the virus. While a variety of modelling studies try to quantify the effects of NPIs, this paper investigates when and how national and subnational governments have taken actions. We observe longitudinal changes in the global pattern of policymaking to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on stay-at-home orders. Drawing on data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we show several important trends. First, while national governments exhibited a strong alignment in policy settings initially in March and April 2020, their cross-country policy heterogeneity has grown since May 2020, although countries within global regions continue to display similarities in their approaches. Second, most governments that have implemented multiple stay-at-home orders over the course of the pandemic have become less sensitive to case levels (insofar as they implement subsequent restrictions at progressively higher case levels), apart from a small number of contrast cases which have mostly eliminated domestic community transmission. Third, pandemic policies are increasingly specific to subnational levels, and there is often significant heterogeneity with regard to policy approaches even within the same country.

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Impacts of worldwide individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission across waves and space

Cited by 17 publications

References 64 publications

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021-22: a status-based multi-variant model

A year of living distantly: global trends in the use of stay-at-home orders over the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic

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