Impacts of various types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki on the rainy season over the Huaihe River basin

Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Zhou, Junwei; Wang, Wenzhuo; Yuan, Feifei; Zhu, Weilin; Yu, Chao

doi:10.1002/joc.6002

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(103 reference statements)

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“…The ENSO Modoki was first reported by Ashok et al (2007), who highlighted that it influenced the regional climate of East Asia in a different way from the typical ENSO. Since then, many other studies have shown that the canonical ENSO and the ENSO Modoki have opposite effects on precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and South China (Cao et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2017;Feng & Li, 2011;Karori et al, 2013;Yuan & Yang, 2012;Zhang et al, 1996). The Indian Ocean Basin mode (Hu & Duan, 2015) and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (Qiu et al, 2014;Weng et al, 2011) also contribute to the distribution of precipitation in China, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation affects summer precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and South and Southwest China (Gu, Li, Wang, et al, 2009;Linderholm et al, 2011;Sung et al, 2006;Xu et al, 2001;Zhou, 2013) and the timing of the onset of the Meiyu rainy season (Xu et al, 2001).…”

Section: Relationship Between the Onset Of The Rainy Season And The Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursor Effect of the Tibetan Plateau Heating Anomaly on the Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

Duan

et al. 2020

JGR Atmospheres

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has complex drivers and is characterized by an abrupt onset and northward jumps of the main rain band. By analyzing multisource observational data and reanalysis data sets during 1961-2016, we addressed the connection between the preceding diabatic heating of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the seasonal march of the EASM. We show that the positive surface sensible heating and condensation heating anomalies over the TP lead the onset, duration, and total precipitation of the rainy season in South China (the first stage of the EASM) by about 2 and 1 month, respectively. A significant positive condensation heating anomaly over the TP can be detected about 1 month before the onset of the rainy season in Southwest China (the second stage of the EASM). By contrast, the relationship between heating of the TP and the onset of the rainy season is relatively weak during the remaining stages of the EASM, including the Meiyu and North China rainy seasons. We suggest that the strong heating of the TP intensifies the low-level southwesterly circulation to the southeast and facilitates the convergence of moisture and ascending motion, leading to an earlier onset of the rainy season. Sensitive experiments with a linear baroclinic model further confirmed the role of heating of the TP in generating circulation conditions favorable for the onset of the rainy season in both South and Southwest China. The TP heating anomaly therefore acts as a precursor of the early stage onset of the EASM.

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Section: Relationship Between the Onset Of The Rainy Season And The Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursor Effect of the Tibetan Plateau Heating Anomaly on the Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

Duan

et al. 2020

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Active water vapor could bring enough precipitation to the HRB. Cao et al [45] analyzed the influence of monsoon on rainy-season precipitation in the HRB. Stronger monsoons from the Indian Ocean are related to more rainfall in the HRB.…”

Section: Meteorological Patterns Associated With the Hidden Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin

Cao

Hao

Yuan

et al. 2019

Water

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In terms of climate change and precipitation, there is large interest in how large-scale climatic features affect regional rainfall amount and rainfall occurrence. Large-scale climate elements need to be downscaled to the regional level for hydrologic applications. Here, a new Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) called the Bayesian-NHMM is presented for downscaling and predicting of multisite daily rainfall during rainy season over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB). The Bayesian-NHMM provides a Bayesian method for parameters estimation. The model avoids the risk to have no solutions for parameter estimation, which often occurs in the traditional NHMM that uses point estimates of parameters. The Bayesian-NHMM accurately captures seasonality and interannual variability of rainfall amount and wet days during the rainy season. The model establishes a link between large-scale meteorological characteristics and local precipitation patterns. It also provides a more stable and efficient method to estimate parameters in the model. These results suggest that prediction of daily precipitation could be improved by the suggested new Bayesian-NHMM method, which can be helpful for water resources management and research on climate change.

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“…El Niño, as the warm phase of ENSO, generally develops in boreal summer and the early autumn, reaches its peak in boreal winter, and decays in the following spring and summer (An and Wang 2001;Tozuka and Yamagata 2003;Lau et al 2005;Xie et al 2009). It has different climate effects on the EASM during different phases (Huang and Wu 1989;Wu et al 2003Wu et al , 2009Cao et al 2019;Yong and Huang 2019). For the El Niño decaying summer, an anomalous anticyclone exists over the Northwest Pacific (NWP).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change in the influence of El Niño in the developing stage on the central China summer precipitation

Chen

Long

et al. 2021

Clim Dyn

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The central China summer precipitation (CCSP) is of great importance to the people's livelihood of this densely populated region, including the agriculture, ecosystems, water resources, economies, and health. Based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the effects of El Niño in the developing stage on the CCSP during 1960-2014. The results show that the CCSP anomalies exhibit significant negative correlations with the El Niño-related SST anomalies in both the simultaneous summer and the following winter, implying that the developing El Niño is important for modulating the CCSP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño is unstable, with an obvious interdecadal change around the late 1980s. Specifically, the negative correlation is not statistically significant in the previous epoch before the late 1980s , but dramatically strengthens since the late 1980s (the post epoch for 1989-2014). Such an interdecadal change is closely associated with the change of the El Niño-related SST anomaly pattern. Compared to the previous epoch, the central Pacific El Niño occurs more frequently in the post epoch, leading to an interdecadal shift of the maximum warm SST anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the central Pacific. The resultant westward extension of the atmospheric circulation responses induces an anomalous low-level cyclone covering South China in the post epoch. It would prevent the southwest monsoon from delivering the moisture to the north and hence reduce the CCSP. While, in the previous epoch, the anomalous cyclone locates east of South China, exerting insignificant influence on the CCSP. This work highlights a strengthening effect of El Niño on the CCSP since the late 1980s, with great implications for the regional seasonal climate prediction.

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Impacts of various types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki on the rainy season over the Huaihe River basin

Cited by 13 publications

References 54 publications

Precursor Effect of the Tibetan Plateau Heating Anomaly on the Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

Precursor Effect of the Tibetan Plateau Heating Anomaly on the Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin

Interdecadal change in the influence of El Niño in the developing stage on the central China summer precipitation

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