Impacts of USAID and development assistance toward counterterrorism efforts: Empirical evidence in context of Pakistan

Abstract

This article studies whether the pursuit of foreign aid for counterterrorism purposes militarizes or mitigates terrorism. It focuses on the USAID and official development assistance (ODA) flows to Pakistan, which recently has experienced an increase due to the presence of deadliest terrorist organizations. By using the time series data from 1985 to 2016, the paper investigated the foreign aid and terrorism nexus for pre‐9/11 and post‐9/11 periods. The empirical estimations of autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach reported that an increase in military expenditures fuels terrorism in post‐9/11 period and the ODA helps to control terrorism from the country. On the contrary, USAID reported insignificant response toward terrorist attacks in pre‐ and post‐9/11 periods, suggesting that the foreign aid from the United States has no significant impact on counterterrorism policies for Pakistan. The outcomes of the current study can be utilized in policymaking of counterterrorism and to explore the nexus between foreign aid, terrorism, and military expenditures. The paper concludes that the concerns about the use of foreign aid as counterterrorism tool are warranted, but that actual manifestations are nuanced.