Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: Forecasts and Potential Risks

Abstract

In the face of the world recession, this article concentrates on analyzing and forecasting demand for outbound traveling in Australia, Canada, United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries in terms of tourism imports at constant prices and exchange rates. Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the global recession and its impact on tourism demand for outbound traveling, the article develops forecasts for the period from 2009 to 2010. For 2010, two scenarios are created to project demand for foreign travel. The study is rounded off by a discussion of forecast uncertainties and open questions.

Understanding tourists' economizing strategies during the global economic crisis

“…During last decades, tourism demand analysis has dealt with the impact of different kinds of crises such as economic crisis (Smeral, 2010;Hall, 2010;Page, Song & Wu, 2012), terrorist attacks (Blake & Sinclair, 2003;Araña & León, 2008), or natural disasters, such as epidemics or earthquakes (Eugenio-Martin, Sinclair & Yeoman, 2005;Carlsen & Hughes, 2008;or Mao, Ding & Lee, 2010). However, one of the driving forces of tourism demand is the economy.…”

“…Tourism managers and policymakers need more information on how to react during economic crises. Nonetheless, there is a lack of suitable indicators and information about tourism behavior in economic crises situations (Sheldon & Dwyer, 2010;Smeral, 2010;. The consequences of such lack of knowledge have been already studied in the literature.…”

Would a single regional visa encourage tourist arrivals in southern Africa?

“…Tosun et al (2005), in a study of Greek-Turkish cross-border collaboration in tourism marketing growth, suggest among other tourism-boosting strategies the simplification of visa formalities and reduction or omission of visa fees and customs taxes for tourists who wish to visit both countries in one trip. Smeral (2009) observes that, with the recent world recession and economic crisis, many countries have become more aware of the economic importance of tourism and are taking measures to encourage tourism demand and assist tourism enterprises, including facilitating travel by simplifying the visa application process, cutting the costs of visas or abolishing visa requirements for certain source markets. Countries across Africa have various visa policies and some of them implement restrictive entry or visa policies, which can discourage travel to the region.…”

The Tourism and Travel Industry and Its Effect on the Great Recession: A Multilevel Survival Analysis

“…Drawing on an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the global recession and its impact on tourism demand for outbound travelling in Australia, Canada, the United States, Japan, and the EU-15 countries, one study developed forecasts for the period from 2009 to 2010 (Smeral, 2010). In 2008-2009, the challenging economic environment and stock market volatility had a negative impact on Zb.…”