Impacts of Seasonal Transitions of ENSO on Atmospheric River Activity over East Asia

Naoi, Moeka; Kamae, Youichi; Ueda, Hiroaki; Mei, Wei

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2020-027

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…It was also reinforced by the low-level flows from the south, similar to previous events in Japan (e.g., Hirota et al, 2016;Tsuguti et al, 2019). Meanwhile, it is likely that the westward extension of the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) also enhanced the northward moisture transport from the SCS to Japan (e.g., Naoi et al, 2020).To date, the relationship between moisture transport and heavy rainfall during the Baiu season has been extensively studied (e.g., Kamae et al, 2017;Zhou & Yu, 2005). Previous studies demonstrated that the strong precipitation is primarily related to the local moisture convergence, accompanied by the low-level southerly…”

supporting

confidence: 67%

“…It was also reinforced by the low‐level flows from the south, similar to previous events in Japan (e.g., Hirota et al., 2016; Tsuguti et al., 2019). Meanwhile, it is likely that the westward extension of the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) also enhanced the northward moisture transport from the SCS to Japan (e.g., Naoi et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Lagrangian View of Moisture Transport Related to the Heavy Rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the Moistening Over the Subtropical Regions

Zhao

Manda

Guo

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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The transport and accumulation of moisture played an essential role in the extremely heavy rainfall of July 2020 in Japan. To better understand this event in terms of moisture sources and transport routes, backward particle trajectory analysis was conducted. We found two major moisture sources: transport from the tropics and uptake from the subtropics. A narrow moisture channel was found along the edge of the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), transporting the moisture to the Baiu front. However, most moisture from the tropics was lost due to precipitation, and their contributions were reduced to about 15%. In contrast, the subtropical regions contributed over 80% moisture via evaporation and lower tropospheric convection. Among those regions, the western Pacific contributed the most (>33%). This study highlights the role of WPSH in moisture transport and demonstrated the importance of moisture uptake during transport.

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supporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Lagrangian View of Moisture Transport Related to the Heavy Rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the Moistening Over the Subtropical Regions

Zhao

Manda

Guo

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Studies have also shown ARs are related to precipitation extremes, flooding, seasonal snowpack, and water availability in the western United States and western Europe (Ralph et al 2006;Guan et al 2010;Dettinger 2011;Guan et al 2013;Lavers and Villarini 2013;Wick et al 2013). Moreover, ARs modulate extreme precipitation and anomalous snow accumulation in many other regions including Antarctica (Gorodetskaya et al 2014;Bozkurt et al 2018;Gorodetskaya et al 2020), Australia and New Zealand (Kingston et al 2016;Ye et al 2020;Prince et al 2021;Reid et al 2021), the Arctic Ocean and Greenland (Baggett et al 2016;Hegyi and Taylor 2018;Mattingly et al 2018;Neff 2018;Wernli and Papritz 2018;Wille et al 2019;Mattingly et al 2020), South America (Viale and Nunez 2011;Viale et al 2018;Ramos et al 2019), North Africa (Blamey et al 2018;Akbary et al 2019;Dezfuli 2020;Massoud et al 2020), and East Asia (Naoi et al 2020;Pan and Lu 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter and spring atmospheric rivers in High Mountain Asia: climatology, dynamics, and variability

et al. 2021

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the complex terrain of High Mountain Asia (HMA) cause significant hydrological impacts for millions of people. While ARs are often associated with precipitation extremes and can cause floods and debris flows affecting populated communities, little is known about ARs that reach as far inland as HMA. This paper characterizes AR types and investigates dynamical mechanisms associated with the development of ARs that typically affect HMA. Combined empirical orthogonal function (cEOF) analysis using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is applied to days where an AR reaches HMA. K-means cluster analysis applied to the first two principal components uncovered three subtypes of AR events with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The first subtype increases precipitation and IVT in Western HMA and is associated with a zonally oriented wave train propagating within the westerly jet waveguide. The second subtype is associated with enhanced southwesterly IVT, anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation centered on 45$$^\circ $$ ∘ E, and precipitation in Northwestern HMA. The third subtype shows anomalous precipitation in Eastern HMA and southwesterly IVT across the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variations in the frequency of HMA ARs and relationships with various teleconnection patterns show that western HMA AR subtypes are sensitive to well-known remote large-scale climate factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Siberian High. These results provide synoptic characterization of the three types of ARs that reach HMA and reveal the previously unexplored significance of their contribution to winter and spring precipitation.

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“…Synoptic‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies resulting from teleconnections associated with those major modes of climate variability have often been linked to extreme precipitation. For example, extreme rainfall associated with atmospheric rivers in East Asia increases during the post‐El Niño summer with the enhancement of water vapor fluxes (Kamae et al., 2017; Naoi et al., 2020). Typhoons, another cause of heavy rain in the western north Pacific region, are also known to change their tracks depending on ENSO and associated large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomalies (Camargo et al., 2007; Kim et al., 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Seasonal Predictability of the Risk of Local Rainfall Extremes Estimated Using High‐Resolution Large Ensemble Simulations

Imada

Kawase

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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Significant progress has been made in seasonal climate predictions based on general circulation models (GCMs). However, seasonal prediction of local heavy rain remains challenging due to limited resolution. A small signal‐to‐noise ratio also prevents meaningful predictions. In this study, 100‐member large‐ensemble sets of GCM simulations and high‐resolution downscaled products with a regional climate model were used to identify the unknown source of seasonal predictability for the risk of local heavy rainfall around Japan and Taiwan. The detected predictable signals depended on the location and the season. Highly predictable signals were found for events caused by typhoons and the stationary front. Further analyses of the large‐scale backgrounds simulated by the parent‐GCM revealed that each source of predictability comes from various flavors of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The approach of this study potentially provides an opportunity to identify unknown predictable regional signals all over the world.

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Impacts of Seasonal Transitions of ENSO on Atmospheric River Activity over East Asia

Abstract: This pre-publication manuscript may be downloaded, distributed and used under the provisions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. It may be cited using the DOI below.

Cited by 17 publications

References 45 publications

A Lagrangian View of Moisture Transport Related to the Heavy Rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the Moistening Over the Subtropical Regions

A Lagrangian View of Moisture Transport Related to the Heavy Rainfall of July 2020 in Japan: Importance of the Moistening Over the Subtropical Regions

Winter and spring atmospheric rivers in High Mountain Asia: climatology, dynamics, and variability

Potential Seasonal Predictability of the Risk of Local Rainfall Extremes Estimated Using High‐Resolution Large Ensemble Simulations

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