Impacts of regional climate change on barley yield and its geographical variation in South Korea

Abstract

A b s t r a c t. Geospatial variations in barley production due to climate change were evaluated for different geographic regions of South Korea over the next hundred years under the climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. We employed a geospatial crop simulation modelling strategy based on the CERES-barley model in the DSSAT crop model package version 4.6 to simulate grid-based geospatial variation in barley yield. An open field experiment and a temperature gradient field chamber experiment were performed to obtain model coefficients for South Korea and to assess the performance of CERES-barley under elevated temperature conditions. Projected barley yield data were further used to establish a new landscape classification system to provide agricultural policymakers with useful information on coping with climate change. Expected yields of four barley cultivars for the whole nation showed moderate increases under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and rapid increases under representative concentration pathways 8.5. More differences in yield were observed between different geospatial regions. Based on k-means clustering and the impact of climate change on barley yield, regional characteristics of the whole country could be classified into six categories. The geospatial crop simulation modelling could be extended to determine geospatial variations in staple crop productions due to other environmental scenarios of interest. K e y w o r d s: barley, climate change, crop model, geospatial projection, yield

Impact of Rising Temperature in the Deposition Patterns of Bioactive Compounds in Field Grown Food Barley Grains

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that the global warming trend from 1986–2005 to 2081–2100 will show a temperature increase of 0.3 °C to 1.7 °C [ 18 ]. Therefore, current concerns exist on the impact of global climate change on the production of crops such as barley [ 19 , 20 , 21 ]. Future growing conditions will expose plants to variable and extreme climate change factors, impacting global agriculture, so future research in this area is essential [ 21 ] to take adequate adaptation measures.…”

Effect of Organic Fertilizers and Foliar Application of some Stimulants on Barley Plants Under Saline Condition. تأثير الأسمدة العضوية والرش الورقي لبعض المنشطات على نباتات الشعير تحت ظروف ملحية

“…It's a highly adaptable cereal grain and ranks fifth among all crops for dry matter production in the world (Thalooth, Bahr, and Tawfik 2012). Barely has wide adaptability to different agro-climatic conditions and different soil properties (Ko et al 2019). Its importance derives from the ability to grow and produce in marginal environments, which are often characterized by drought, low temperature, and salinity.…”

Simulated impacts of rainfall extremes on yield responses of various barley varieties in a temperate region

“…Although both of the studies of Ko et al (2019) and Cammarano et al (2019) projected incremental changes in temperature in the study regions, they reported different yield patterns. Ko et al (2019) reported that yields would increase in the future while Cammaron et al (2019) predicted that yields would decrease by 8-25% depending on climate projection. Cammaron et al (2019) also reported that barley yields were substantially affected by rainfall and soil moisture content as more yield variation was observed in wet conditions.…”

“…Takác and Šiška (2009) used an agroecological model, DAISY, to simulate the yield of spring barley on the Danubian lowland in Slovakia. Other studies used CERES-Barley to simulate the impact of climate change on barley yields in various locations of South Korea (Ko et al, 2019) and in the Mediterranean basin (Cammarano et al, 2019). Although both of the studies of Ko et al (2019) and Cammarano et al (2019) projected incremental changes in temperature in the study regions, they reported different yield patterns.…”

“…Other studies used CERES-Barley to simulate the impact of climate change on barley yields in various locations of South Korea (Ko et al, 2019) and in the Mediterranean basin (Cammarano et al, 2019). Although both of the studies of Ko et al (2019) and Cammarano et al (2019) projected incremental changes in temperature in the study regions, they reported different yield patterns. Ko et al (2019) reported that yields would increase in the future while Cammaron et al (2019) predicted that yields would decrease by 8-25% depending on climate projection.…”