Impacts of megatrends on the global water landscape

Abstract

Megatrends can be defined as 'sequence[s] of events or observed phenomena that have some momentum in a particular direction and some level of durability' (Rohner, 2018). They are reshaping the future of the world in many known and unknown ways. In the area of water, megatrends that are driving use and management practices and processes include demographic development, economic growth, urbanization, sustainability-related issues, infrastructure, technology, commercialization, social and perceptional changes, climate variability and change, and, most importantly, water-related thinking (Biswas, Tortajada, & Rohner, 2018).The relevance of these megatrends is dependent on the economic, social, political and environmental implications they have for the society as a whole, both currently and in the future. An important consideration is how society can be better prepared for, learn about and take advantage of the opportunities that megatrends offer. How can the water profession and policy makers build resilience sustainably over the long term and not simply react to these changes in an ad hoc manner? How can plans best be formulated so that water-related institutions are able to provide appropriate, timely and cost-effective responses?Events are often unexpected, such as those related to climate, and thus institutions may not be prepared to formulate and execute appropriate responses. There is no doubt that countries with functioning institutions that are accountable, transparent and inclusive will be better able to overcome the challenging situations, as well as provide necessary services to their populations efficiently and effectively. Countries that are not prepared and do not have adequate institutional capacities are likely to be the most vulnerable.Under these conditions, the questions that should be asked are whether institutions, policies, regulations, management and administrative skills, and investments are in place to deal adequately with a future that is full of uncertainties and increasing complexities. Are institutions able to function efficiently and effectively under rapidly evolving conditions? In terms of basic services such as water supply and wastewater management, how will these megatrends affect service delivery? What will be the impacts of sea-level rise on water infrastructure, hydropower and irrigation, especially with changing and uncertain precipitation patterns? How will these uncertain events affect societies in the coming years? What policies should be formulated to ensure that overall development is not hindered?The global water landscape is changing rapidly. While historical knowledge and past experience are always useful to understand and appreciate the genesis of any problems, new lenses are necessary through which they should be viewed, analyzed and solved. Even this may not be enough. Addressing more comprehensively all future water-related problems in a coordinated manner, compared to the situations at present, will invariably require proactive and effective institutions, coordinati...

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“…This implies that the vast majority of academic articles frame EFWE within the hydrological cycle ideology which commonly views EFWE as natural disturbances in perceived normal quantities of water, viewing them as natural disasters or crises. This perspective is consistent with research advocating that water is dominantly interpreted as a natural resource, separate and distinct from human systems (Linton, 2008(Linton, , 2010Linton & Budds, 2014;McMartin et al, 2018;Sammel et al, 2018;Schmidt, 2013Schmidt, , 2014Sivapalan et al, 2012;Takao, 2016;Tortajada & Biswas, 2018). Discussions of social aspects within Level 2 refer only to the impact or aftermath of EFWE to society, with little recognition of complex historical societal processes influencing EFWE.…”

“…With the global freshwater landscape changing due to climate change (IPCC, 2014;WWAP, 2012WWAP, , 2014, it becomes necessary to view the human-water relationship differently and investigate widely accepted paradigms and assumptions (Tortajada & Biswas, 2018). Understanding the multiple geneses of emerging issues, identifying new and innovative approaches, and determining medium-and long-term implications is needed in order to reflect on present-day agendas.…”

“…A purely hydrological cycle understanding of EFWE is being challenged by a hydrosocial cycle understanding (Linton, 2010;Sammel, 2014Sammel, , 2016Sammel & McMartin, 2014;Sammel et al, 2018;Sivapalan et al, 2012). A hydrosocial cycle understanding encourages EFWE to be understood as dynamic fluctuations in the quantity and flow of water, where water movement aligns with larger natural and socially constructed rhythms that have different temporal beats (Krause, 2013;Linton, 2008Linton, , 2014Linton & Budds, 2014;Tortajada & Biswas, 2018). This perspective recognizes the complex, long-term coevolution of human systems with freshwater systems, where humans have interacted with and changed the natural environment, thereby directly influencing EFWE, just as EFWE also influence social systems (Bates et al, 2008;McMartin et al, 2018;Sivapalan et al, 2012).…”

“…From one standpoint, EFWE can be viewed as disturbing what is assumed to be the normalcy of natural systems upon which social systems have been built (Strang, 2004). From another, EFWE may be viewed as an inevitable part of the circulation of freshwater within living, fluctuating systems which are deeply interconnected and influenced by human existence and practices (Christian & Wong, 2017;Harvey & Stocker, 2015;Krause, 2014Krause, , 2016Krause & Strang, 2016;Likens et al, 2009;McMartin et al, 2018;Sivapalan et al, 2012;Tortajada & Biswas, 2018). This continuum highlights theoretical positions underpinning these standpoints, but to what degree are these standpoints represented in peerreviewed journal articles written about the 2011 Queensland or Saskatchewan EFWE?…”