Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation Variability on Low Streamflows over Canada: A Review

Bonsal, Barrie; Shabbar, Amir

doi:10.4296/cwrj3302137

Cited by 79 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The influence of the NAO on observed extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America. In northeast Canada the likelihood of a precipitation event that would occur once every 20-years under the negative phase of the NAO is decreased when the NAO is positive, consistent with the decreased precipitation and stream flow that is associated with the positive phase of the NAO (Bonsal and Shabbar 2008;Archambault et al 2008). The NAO has the opposite influence in the eastern United States, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme event increased when the NAO is positive, in agreement with previous work (Durkee et al 2007;Archambault et al 2008).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…In the region south of the Great Lakes, the NAO risk factor is between 2 and 4, meaning that a negative phase NAO extreme rainfall event is up to four times more likely under the positive phase. This dipole pattern in north and south eastern North America is consistent with previous studies (Ning and Bradley 2014b;Durkee et al 2007;Bonsal and Shabbar 2008). The spatial pattern of NAO influence is generally comparable between the two observationally-based data sets, although the magnitude of increased likelihood of negative NAO extreme precipitation under a positive NAO regime is somewhat larger in the central and eastern United States in NARR compared to ANUSPLIN + Livneh (Fig.…”

Section: Naosupporting

confidence: 90%

“…5a, b), consistent with Zhang et al (2010). In the Pacific Northwest and most of Canada (excluding northwest Canada) El Niño is associated with a decrease in the probability of a La Niña magnitude extreme event (Shabbar et al 1997;Bonsal and Shabbar 2008). The region of decreased ENSO risk factor extends south into the western and eastern United States, with the likelihood of a La Niña extreme rainfall event decreased under El Niño in the areas north and south of the Great Lakes (Fig.…”

Section: Ensomentioning

confidence: 58%

“…These changes in circulation influence the climate of eastern North America (Ning and Bradley 2014b;Archambault et al 2008). The positive phase of the NAO is associated with increased precipitation frequency and positive daily rainfall anomalies in the northeastern United States (Durkee et al 2007;Archambault et al 2008) while in northern and eastern Canada there is reduced precipitation and stream flow (Ning and Bradley 2014b;Bonsal and Shabbar 2008). The precipitation response is the opposite during the negative phase, with a shift towards less frequent precipitation in the northeastern United States (Archambault et al 2008) and increased precipitation in eastern Canada (Bonsal and Shabbar 2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The positive phase of the NAO is associated with increased precipitation frequency and positive daily rainfall anomalies in the northeastern United States (Durkee et al 2007;Archambault et al 2008) while in northern and eastern Canada there is reduced precipitation and stream flow (Ning and Bradley 2014b;Bonsal and Shabbar 2008). The precipitation response is the opposite during the negative phase, with a shift towards less frequent precipitation in the northeastern United States (Archambault et al 2008) and increased precipitation in eastern Canada (Bonsal and Shabbar 2008). Differences in SLP between positive and negative phase NAO years align well with precipitation differences, with a boundary between increases and decreases around 40 • N, as higher pressure blocks winter storm activity (Ning and Bradley 2014b).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

Whan

Zwiers

2016

Clim Dyn

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Naosupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Ensomentioning

confidence: 58%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

Whan

Zwiers

2016

Clim Dyn

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Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over Canadian ecoregions and teleconnections to large‐scale climate anomalies

2016

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To detect significant interannual and interdecadal oscillations and their teleconnections to large‐scale climate anomalies such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), monthly and seasonal maximum daily precipitation (MMDP and SMDP) from 131 stations across Canada were analyzed by using variants of wavelet analysis. Interannual (1–8 years) oscillations were found to be more significant than interdecadal (8–30 years) oscillations for all selected stations, and the oscillations are both spatial and time‐dependent. Similarly, the significant wavelet coherence and the phase difference between leading principal components of monthly precipitation extremes and climate indices were highly variable in time and in periodicity, and a single climate index explains less than 40% of the total variability. Partial wavelet coherence analysis shows that both ENSO and PDO modulated the interannual variability and PDO modulated the interdecadal variability, of MMDP over Canada. NAO is correlated with the western MMDP at interdecadal scale and the eastern MMDP at interannual scale. The composite analysis shows that precipitation extremes at about three fourths of the stations have been significantly influenced by ENSO and PDO patterns, while about one half of the stations by the NAO patterns. The magnitude of SMDP in extreme El Niño years, and extreme PDO event of positive phase, was mostly lower (higher) over the Canadian Prairies in summer and winter (spring and autumn) than in extreme La Niña years. Overall, the degree of influence of large‐scale climate patterns on Canadian precipitation extremes varies by season and by region.

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Forms and drivers of annual streamflow variability in the headwaters of Canadian Prairies during the 20th century

Nazemi

Wheater

Chun

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

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Headwater streamflows in the Rocky Mountain foothills are the key to water availability in the Canadian Prairies. Headwater characteristics, however, have been and continue to be subject to major variability and change. Here, we identify various forms of change in the annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak and attempt to distinguish between the effects of multiple drivers using a generalized regression scheme. Our investigation shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the main driver of significant monotonic trends and shifts in the central tendency of annual mean streamflow in major headwaters. In parallel, the cumulative effects of non-PDO climatic drivers and human-induced land use and land management are the main causes of significant variations in the timing of the annual peak. Additional analyses show that time sequences with significant trends in annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak coincide with those that show significant trends in the PDO or non-PDO component of the air temperature, respectively. The natural streamflow characteristics are substantially perturbed by anthropogenic river flow regulation, depending on the form of change and/or the level of regulation. Evidence suggests that the general tendency of human regulation is to alleviate the severity of above-and below-average streamflow conditions; however, it may also intensify the variability in natural streamflow characteristics during drier years and/or those with earlier annual peak timing. These are circumstances to which the regional water resource system is vulnerable. Our findings are important for the provision of effective regional water resource management in the Canadian Prairies and contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic drivers in coupled human-water systems.KEYWORDS annual streamflow characteristics, form and drivers of change, generalized least square regression, human-water systems, nonparametric statistical tests, South Saskatchewan River

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Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation Variability on Low Streamflows over Canada: A Review

Cited by 79 publications

References 52 publications

The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over Canadian ecoregions and teleconnections to large‐scale climate anomalies

Forms and drivers of annual streamflow variability in the headwaters of Canadian Prairies during the 20th century

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