Impacts of land-use management on ecosystem services and biodiversity: an agent-based modelling approach

Abstract

The science of ecosystem service (ES) mapping has become increasingly sophisticated over the past 20 years, and examples of successfully integrating ES into management decisions at national and sub-national scales have begun to emerge. However, increasing model sophistication and accuracy—and therefore complexity—may trade-off with ease of use and applicability to real-world decision-making contexts, so it is vital to incorporate the lessons learned from implementation efforts into new model development. Using successful implementation efforts for guidance, we developed an integrated ES modelling system to quantify several ecosystem services: forest timber production and carbon storage, water purification, pollination, and biodiversity. The system is designed to facilitate uptake of ES information into land-use decisions through three principal considerations: (1) using relatively straightforward models that can be readily deployed and interpreted without specialized expertise; (2) using an agent-based modelling framework to enable the incorporation of human decision-making directly within the model; and (3) integration among all ES models to simultaneously demonstrate the effects of a single land-use decision on multiple ES. We present an implementation of the model for a major watershed in Alberta, Canada, and highlight the system’s capabilities to assess a suite of ES under future management decisions, including forestry activities under two alternative timber harvest strategies, and through a scenario modelling analysis exploring different intensities of hypothetical agricultural expansion. By using a modular approach, the modelling system can be readily expanded to evaluate additional ecosystem services or management questions of interest in order to guide land-use decisions to achieve socioeconomic and environmental objectives.

Perceptions of ecosystem services provision performance in the face of climate change among communities in Bobirwa sub-district, Botswana

“…To have a complete understanding of ecosystem service provision among local communities, it is critical to establish where they are produced and where they are consumed (Pagella and Sinclair, 2014). As noted by Habib et al (2016), the identification of local ecosystem services by LULC type is critical for demonstrating the impacts of climate as well as human-induced land-use change on the delivery of bundles of ecosystem services they provide. More so, such a design simplifies trade-off analyses on the effects of both climate and human activities on the landscape such that they can be construed at the local level without technical experts.…”

Multicriteria spatial analysis applied to identifying ecosystem services in mixed-use river catchment areas in south central Chile

“…This may lead to greater contamination of water bodies, species loss, habitat reduction etc. (Habib et al 2016;Dassou et al 2017;De los Ríos Escalante et al 2017), as well as contributing to the impact on the world CO 2 balance by increasing the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) and thus promoting climate change. This is suggested by the leading actors of the area, who recognise the negative effects of these two activities on the ecosystem, especially on N. dombeyi forest and the water production and quality services associated with this species.…”

“…The transformation of large areas from native forest to land-uses like farming and forestry plantations modifies the water flow and supply significantly; this may affect economic activities, as remarked by Habib et al (2016). Oyarzún et al (2005) indicate that economic activities related with the production and consumption of market goods like drinking water may be severely affected.…”

“…Earlier studies, such as Lara et al (2003), Echeverría et al (2006), Lara et al (2009), Miranda et al (2015), indicate that the landscape of south central Chile has undergone a series of transformations in recent decades; drastic changes and intense pressure on land-use have resulted in incompatibility between different goods and services. The factors responsible for these changes have been activities like clearing land for agriculture, use of fire, deforestation and degradation of natural forests in areas of high biodiversity (Habib et al 2016), and wood production in fast-growing plantations relying on irrigation. This reflects the historical reality of the study basin.…”

A Conceptual Model Framework for Mapping, Analyzing and Managing Supply–Demand Mismatches of Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes

“…Chen et al [61] developed the human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP) spatially explicit agent-based model to study the effectiveness of China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and alternative policy scenarios in a CHNS. Habib et al [62] assessed the impacts of land use management on ESS provision using an agent-based model. Tieskens et al [63] applied an agent-based modelling approach to explore the outcomes of future landscape change, focusing on the quality of hedgerows and cultural values in relation to scale enlargement, using a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes.…”