Impacts of Land Cover and Greenhouse Gas (Ghg) Concentration Changes on the Hydrological Cycle in Amazon Basin: A Regional Climate Model Study

Rocha, Vinícius Machado; Correia, Francis Wagner Silva; Satyamurty, Prakki; Freitas, Saulo R.; Moreira, Demerval Soares; Silva, Paulo Ricardo Teixeira da; Fialho, Edson Soares

doi:10.5380/abclima.v15i0.36386

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…The change in the pattern of moisture convergence is associated with a change in the patterns of water vapour transport by winds from the north tropical Atlantic Ocean, as well as the amount of water vapour available in the atmosphere. These results are in agreement with Rocha et al (2015) and Gomes et al (2020), where they showed that a scenario of an increase in GHGs plus deforestation would significantly interfere with water‐energy balances, the dynamic structure of the atmosphere and, consequently, the entry and exit of moisture in the basin.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The transport of moisture by the winds from the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean is also an important source of moisture for the formation of cloudiness and rainfall in the Amazon basin. Rocha et al (2015, 2019) also noted the reduction in moisture convergence due to changes in the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and in general circulation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The convergence of humidity in surface for the rainy and dry periods related to the increase in GHGs is presented in Figure 5. As in other studies (Rocha et al, 2012(Rocha et al, , 2015(Rocha et al, , and 2019, the moisture convergence was estimated herein from the difference between the fields of precipitation and evapotranspiration (P-E). The results show an anomalous reduction in moisture convergence (40-50 mm) in the rainy season (Figure 5a), mainly in the south and east of the basin (southern Amazonas, Rondonia, Mato Grosso and Par a).…”

Section: Surface Fieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The thick line represents the boundaries of the Amazon basin. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] Both the increase in GHGs and the deforestation produce a reduction in the two main sources of moisture for rains in the Amazon, which are the recycling of water vapour during the evapotranspiration process of the forest and the convergence of moisture flow in the basin (Rocha et al, 2015). Both factors reduce the amount of water vapour in the basin, but the combined effect of both further amplifies the reduction.…”

Section: Indices Of Climate Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and deforestation on extreme rainfall events in the Amazon basin: A multi‐model ensemble‐based study

Brito

Veiga

Correia

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and total deforestation of the Amazon on extreme rainfall events in the Amazon basin. In order to quantify these impacts, numerical experiments were performed with the Eta regional climate model forced from initial and boundary conditions from the BESM, HadGEM2‐ES, and MIROC5 earth system models. In the experiment related to the increase in GHGs, numerical simulations were performed according to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The effect of deforestation was quantified via an experiment in which the forest in the Amazon basin was replaced by areas of degraded pasture in the Eta model. For the analyses of the changes in extreme rainfall events, the multi‐model ensemble technique was used. The results were evaluated in terms of anomalies relative to the sensitivity and control experiments. In the results, it was observed that in an RCP8.5‐type GHG emission scenario there is a statistically significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive days without rain, a reduction in the maximum number of consecutive rainy days, reduction in total annual precipitation, and reduction in maximum annual precipitation accumulated over one and 5 days, respectively. The results for the scenario with increased GHGs and large‐scale deforestation in the Amazon basin are similar to the RCP8.5 scenario, but the intensity of changes in climate indices is significantly greater. It was also verified that the changes in the climatic indices are strongly associated with alterations in the energy balances at the surface and, consequently, in the large‐scale circulation. In general, it can be highlighted that the climate in the Amazon region is strongly dependent on the presence of the forest.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Surface Fieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indices Of Climate Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and deforestation on extreme rainfall events in the Amazon basin: A multi‐model ensemble‐based study

Brito

Veiga

Correia

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The detailed simulation can better represent the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological variables, such as short-duration phenomena, extreme events, small-scale events, cumulus convection, cloud-radiation forcing, and the influence of orography, land-sea and other surface interactions (Wang et al 2004;Rummukainen et al 2016). In the Amazon, regional models have already been used to validate the present climate (Chou et al 2012;Builes-Jaramillo and Pántano 2021), to simulate the effects of deforestation on regional circulation (Ruiz-Vásquez et al 2020;De Sales et al 2020) and the hydrological cycle (Gomes et al 2020), as well as to study climate change (Llopart et al 2014;Rocha et al 2015). Detailed simulations of precipitation and temperature can improve the quality of the assessment of changes in climate and the hydrological cycle through representation of changes in regional circulation (Ambrizzi et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

et al. 2023

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Studies regarding deforestation, the hydrological cycle, climate change and fire weather can benefit from the detailed simulations provided by regional climate models (RCM). While much attention has been given to fire activity in the Amazon, few studies have used RCM runs to assess fire risk and variables associated to fire occurrence. We evaluated precipitation, temperature and a fire risk index from the ensemble of Eta model simulations coupled with three different global climate models for the Amazon basin. The RCM runs were compared to reanalysis data for the dry season from 1979 to 2005. The maximum and 2-m temperature fields were underestimated over the entire region, but showed a statistically significant spatial correlation with the reference data. Precipitation was overestimated over the Amazon, in accordance with the major sources of moisture analyzed. The Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) was not significantly affected by the bias found in temperature and precipitation, and the ensemble improved relative to the individual member simulations. KBDI estimations performed better with the ensemble of the three evaluated members, however the Eta model showed some limitations. The validation of modeled fire risk could benefit from the use of satellite hotspot data. Furthermore, the KBDI can also be used in the assessment of how climate change interacts with fire activity in the Amazon region.

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Amazon deforestation: simulated impact of Brazil’s proposed BR-319 highway project

Santos,

Yanai,

Graça

et al. 2023

Environ Monit Assess

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Impacts of Land Cover and Greenhouse Gas (Ghg) Concentration Changes on the Hydrological Cycle in Amazon Basin: A Regional Climate Model Study

Cited by 8 publications

References 60 publications

Impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and deforestation on extreme rainfall events in the Amazon basin: A multi‐model ensemble‐based study

Impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and deforestation on extreme rainfall events in the Amazon basin: A multi‐model ensemble‐based study

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

Amazon deforestation: simulated impact of Brazil’s proposed BR-319 highway project

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