Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa

Sawadogo, Windmanagda; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Okogbue, Emmanuel Chilekwu

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.032

Cited by 50 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…SARAH-2 is a product derived from satellite observations on the visible channels of the MVIRI and the SEVIRI instruments onboard the geostationary Meteosat satellites. Satellite based observations are characterized by lower uncertainties than the reanalysis dataset due to higher accuracy (Boilley et Wald 2015) and they are widely used to evaluate the solar irradiance simulated by climate models (Tang et al 2019b;Sawadogo et al 2019b;Bichet et al 2019). From the CM-SAF platform, we retrieved monthly Rs for the period 1995-2014.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The power rating method uses the integration of instantaneous photovoltaic power generation over time, while the energy rating method estimates the photovoltaic potential by multiplying the total solar irradiance during a specific period of time by a performance ratio (Dubey et al 2013). Similarly, to previous studies (Jerez et al 2015;Sawadogo et al 2019b;Bichet et al 2019), here we use the energy rating method, and in particular we quantify the PVP following Mavromatakis et al (2010):…”

Section: Photovoltaic Power Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bazyomo et al (2016) also projected a general decrease of PV power generation over West African countries, except for Sierra Leone. Using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Giorgi et al 2009), Sawadogo et al (2019b) projected a general decrease of photovoltaic power potential (PVP) over West Africa under RCP8.5, with a maximum decrease reaching 3.8%. Likewise, Bichet et al (2019) projected an average decrease of PVP of about 4% over most of Africa by the end of the century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

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Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emission scenarios using a set of new high resolution (25 km) simulations with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) produced as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative. The projections focus on two periods: (i) the near future (2021-2040) and ii) the mid-century future (2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060). The performance of the RegCM4 ensemble mean (Rmean) in simulating relevant present climate variables (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) is first evaluated with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite-based data. The Rmean reproduces reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of solar irradiance, air temperature, total cloud cover, wind speed at 100 m above the ground level, photovoltaic power potential (PVP), concentrated solar power output (CSPOUT) and wind power density (WPD) over Africa, though some biases are still evident, especially for cloud-related variables. For the future climate, the sign of the changes is consistent in both scenarios but with more intense magnitude in the middle of the century RCP8.5 scenario. Considering the energy variables, the Rmean projects a general decrease in PVP, which is more pronounced in the mid-century future and under RCP8.5 (up to 2%). Similarly, a general increase in CSPOUT (up to 2%) is projected over the continent under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projection in WPD shows a similar change (predominant increase) in the near and mid-century future slices under both RCPs with a maximum increase of 20%. The present study suggests that the RCP2.6 emission scenario, in general, favours the implementation of renewable energy in Africa compared to the RCP8.5.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Photovoltaic Power Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

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“…On the other side, different country-specific mini grid analyses were performed in order to compare off-grid and grid extension approaches to achieve higher electrification coverage in Senegal [52] and to evaluate the total renewable energy potential in Cote d'Ivoire [53]. A different perspective was considered by Sawadogo et al (2020) [54] in which the impact of solar irradiation variability along the year in the design of PV systems in Western Africa was analyzed. Variations of 8-25% in the annual cycle were observed in the PV generation.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Mini Grid Potentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

State-of-the-Art of Mini Grids for Rural Electrification in West Africa

2021

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The current electrification status in West African countries presents rural electrification rates below 40%, national grid losses above 39% with frequent disruptions, and electricity prices averaging $0.35/kWh, up to national values of $0.66/kWh. With this, off-grid systems have gained great attention during the last decade as energy solutions; especially solar home systems (SHS) and mini grids. Nowadays, 385 mini grids with a power of near 30 MW are operating in West Africa, with 95% based on PV. Since 2019, result-based tenders with international aid funding—more effective than previous competitive tenders—seek to install at least 317 new mini grids in Togo, 250 in Nigeria, 100 in Burkina Faso, and two in Mali. Besides, the market for mini-grid energy access start-ups grew from $19 million in 2013 to $339 million in 2018. Despite this recent development in West Africa, research and data for mini grids in this region is scarce, and it is mostly approached from the technological side, with a striking lack of information regarding the social impact. This work tries to describe the present status of research and current operating installations, as well as the main challenges for future development of off grid mini grids in West Africa, which pose as the missing link between SHS and grid extension.

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“…As such, due to the fact that West Africa is notably subject to large smoke and mineral dust loads, the regional radiative budget is found to be significantly impacted [39,43]. Annual cycle of radiation is also reported to have a substantial influence on the seasonal variation of the monsoon system over West Africa [44]. However, some previous studies over West Africa used radiative models to estimate radiation components, while a few others used ground measurements for just a few periods of time e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of cloudiness on near surface radiation and temperature in Nigeria, West Africa

et al. 2020

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This study investigates impacts of cloudiness on surface radiation budget and temperature from 1983 to 2018 in Nigeria, West Africa. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration meteorological datasets were used to achieve this objective. Net radiation (R) increased latitudinally from the coast to the inland areas. The least value of R was obtained in wet season which coincided with the period when cloud cover was at its optimal. We obtained significant decreasing trends (− 0.110 to − 0.536 Wm −2 year −1) in R but significant increasing trends in cloud cover in most parts of the region. Under clear-sky conditions, however, significant increasing trends (0.256-0.807 Wm −2 year −1) in R were obtained. Annual mean temperature showed significant upward trends under all-sky (0.009-0.059 °C year −1) and clear-sky (0.019-0.072 °C year −1) conditions. Furthermore, significant negative correlations (− 0.70 ≤ r ≤ − 0.95) were obtained between monthly values of cloud cover and R over the country. However, r values for cloud cover and temperature were positive over Sahel (r ~ 0.65) but negative over Guinea (r ~ 0.45); both significant at p < 0.05. Changes in R were accounted for by 21 to 26% variations in cloud cover, while fluctuation in temperature was explained by about 14% variation in cloud cover over Sahel region at p < 0.05. Our results revealed that the surface radiation budget was significantly perturbed by variations in cloudiness which resulted in net cloud-radiative cooling (− 30 Wm −2) over Guinea but warming over Savannah (25 Wm −2) and Sahel (50 Wm −2) zones.

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Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa

Cited by 50 publications

References 42 publications

Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble

State-of-the-Art of Mini Grids for Rural Electrification in West Africa

Impacts of cloudiness on near surface radiation and temperature in Nigeria, West Africa

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