Impacts of ENSO on Tropical Pacific Chlorophyll Biomass Under Historical and RCP8.5 Scenarios

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the influences of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on chlorophyll biomass in the tropical Pacific under historical and RCP8.5 scenarios with simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE) project. Large variance in surface chlorophyll concentrations is identified across the Peruvian Upwelling (PU), Equatorial Upwelling (EU), and Western Pacific (WP) regions within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest that responses of surface chlorophyll to ENSO in these regions are governed by different mechanisms. The increasing chlorophyll during La Niña is a consequence of increasing nutrients, influenced by local upwelling systems in the PU and EU regions, while the supplementary nutrients in the WP region arise from the eastern Pacific through stronger surface westward currents. Under RCP8.5 scenario, stronger water warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific leads to a remarkable reduction in the amplitudes of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of chlorophyll in both PU and EU regions. This results in less responsiveness of the chlorophyll biomass to El Niño and moderate La Niña compared to the historical period. However, though warming induces a decrease in chlorophyll concentrations in the WP region, the interannual variations of chlorophyll have shown an improvement in correlation with ENSO events. Meanwhile, despite the small phytoplankton‐dominated community being observed under future scenario, species dominance is likely to shift back to diatoms once extreme La Niña occurs, which is unseen in all El Niño and moderate La Niña cases.