Impacts of Daily Travel by Distances on the Spread of COVID-19: An Artificial Neural Network Model

Abstract

The continued spread of COVID-19 poses significant threats to the safety of the community. Since it is still uncertain when the pandemic will end, it is vital to understand the factors contributing to new cases of COVID-19, especially from the transportation perspective. This paper examines the effect of the United States residents’ daily trips by distances on the spread of COVID-19 in the community. The artificial neural network method is used to construct and test the predictive model using data collected from two sources: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the COVID-19 Tracking Project. The dataset uses ten daily travel variables by distances and new tests from March to September 2020, with a sample size of 10,914. The results indicate the importance of daily trips at different distances in predicting the spread of COVID-19. More specifically, trips shorter than 3 mi and trips between 250 and 500 mi contribute most to predicting daily new cases of COVID-19. Additionally, daily new tests and trips between 10 and 25 mi are among the variables with the lowest effects. This study’s findings can help governmental authorities evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infection based on residents’ daily travel behaviors and form necessary strategies to mitigate the risks. The developed neural network can be used to predict the infection rate and construct various scenarios for risk assessment and control.

Fear Transition in Public Transport Behaviors During the Peak of the Pandemic

“…This study highlighted an early-stage closed loop of transport behavior amid COVID-19, wherein more trips correlated with accelerated virus spread, resulting in higher risk perception and reduced trips, thereby perpetuating the loop. This nding is supported by another study by Truong and Truong (2022a), which found a positive relationship between daily trips and the number of COVID-19 cases. However, with the availability of vaccines in early 2021, this loop was broken, resulting in new transport patterns that showed an increase in travel in mid-2021.…”

Komunikasi Persuasif oleh Kepolisian Sektor Dungingi tentang Penerapan Protokol Kesehatan

“…Pandemi COVID-19 sudah menyerang Indonesia sejak Maret 2020. COVID-19 berawal mula dari Kota Wuhan di Provinsi Hubei, Cina terlebih dahulu (Troung, 2021). Selanjutnya, COVID-19 tersebar di berbagai wilayah pada tahun 2020 secara cepat.…”