Impacts of CMEs on Earth Based on Logistic Regression and Recommendation Algorithm

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the major disturbance sources of space weather. Therefore, it is of great significance to determine whether CMEs will reach the earth. Utilizing the method of logistic regression, we first calculate and analyze the correlation coefficients of the characteristic parameters of CMEs. These parameters include central position angle, angular width, and linear velocity, which are derived from the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) images. We have developed a logistic regression model to predict whether a CME will reach the earth, and the model yields an F1 score of 30% and a recall of 53%. Besides, for each CME, we use the recommendation algorithm to single out the most similar historical event, which can be a reference to forecast CMEs geoeffectiveness forecasting and for comparative analysis.

Sun-as-a-star Study of an X-class Solar Flare with Spectroscopic Observations of CHASE

“…Observations at multipassbands have played a crucial role in understanding the fundamental physical processes involved in solar flares, including the buildup, release, and transport of the energy (Priest & Forbes 2002). It should be noted that flares are frequently accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs; Cliver et al 2022), which can lead to severe space weather events, such as geomagnetic storms, ionospheric storms, and variations in the density of Earth's upper atmosphere (Shi et al 2022).…”