Impacts of Climatic Change on World Agricultural Product Markets: Estimation of Macro Yield Functions

Furuya, Jun; Koyama, Osamu

doi:10.6090/jarq.39.121

Cited by 28 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Impact analysis of climate change on global crop production A world-food model capable of analyzing the impact of climate change was developed by Furuya & Koyama (2005) and is relevant to the mid-term outlook for 20-30 years. Another model including a long-term outlook for 50-100 years was developed and yield trends of rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans were obtained by estimating the logistic functions or linear functions with a logarithmic timetrend term for the long-term outlook.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies for Climate Change: Model Development for Impact Analysis and Technological Assessment

Furuya

Tokunaga

Okiyama

et al. 2015

JARQ

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Agricultural mitigation and adaptation technologies developed and assessed in a project organized by the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Research Council were evaluated on an economic basis using a regional-production model, an applied general-equilibrium model, a discrete choice experiment, and a world-food model. Climate-change effects on food production were also evaluated using these models. This paper presents: (1) an overview of the sub-project structure and goals, (2) the six results of the sub-project, and (3) the future direction of the sub-project. Results of these models were subsequently integrated into a single regional model, whereupon selected technologies were economically evaluated using the models developed in the sub-project. The main results are as follows: (1) delaying the introduction of high-temperature-tolerant rice by one year will result in an average economic welfare losses of 429 million yen per year in Japan; (2) higher temperatures under RCP4.5 scenario will cause an increase in 0.2 t ha -1 rice yield in Japan in 2040s compared to a constant climate variables case; (3) the target reduction rate of GHG, which is 25% of the 1990 figure, will imply benefit-cost ratios greater than one for most CH 4 -suppression technologies developed in the project.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies for Climate Change: Model Development for Impact Analysis and Technological Assessment

Furuya

Tokunaga

Okiyama

et al. 2015

JARQ

Self Cite

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“…These grid data are averaged for each country. If the country is large, such as the U.S.A. or mainland China, these data are averaged for crop-cultivation regions according to Furuya & Koyama (2005).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The yield functions are used in a supply and demand model: the Basic Linked System of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Furuya & Koyama (2005) developed a world food model with yield functions, including terms of climate variables as independent variables and used it to evaluate the *Corresponding author: e-mail furuya@affrc.go.jp Received 11 October 2013;accepted 6 October 2014. effects of global warming on agricultural markets. The model was then extended by Furuya & Kobayashi (2009) to a stochastic world food model considering variations in climate variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Long-term World-crop Production: Incorporating a Crop Model into Long-term Yield Estimates

Furuya

Kobayashi

Yamamoto

et al. 2015

JARQ

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Annual crop yield forecasts are necessary for analysis because evaluating climate-change impacts on world food markets requires supply-response functions, including output prices of the prior year. This research was undertaken to develop yield-response functions of the world food model to evaluate climate-change effects by incorporating a crop model into the yield-trend function. Yield-trend functions of rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans were obtained by estimating logistic functions or linear functions with a logarithmic time-trend term and climate variables. Furthermore, temperature and solar-radiation elasticities of yields were calculated using a crop model of the FAO and IIASA. The functions of the maximum rate of gross biomass production and the maximum net rate of CO 2 exchange of leaves in the crop model were modified by introducing cubic spline interpolation and logistic functions. Smoothing these two functions alleviates drastic changes, but reveals small changes in the elasticities of crop yields compared to the kinked functions and these more realistic elasticities can improve the evaluation accuracy of climate-change impacts on crop supply and demand. These variable elasticities of temperature and solar-radiation were inserted into the yield-trend functions, whereupon the global effects of changes in climate variables, including rainfall, were analyzed. The changes in yields obtained using climate variables of two of the four RCP scenarios were compared with the baseline, for which climate variables were fixed. Results of trend analyses show that yields of rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans under RCP8.5 are lower than those under RCP2.6, except for wheat in China. Results of geographical analysis show that climate change can be expected to affect wheat and maize productions in low-latitude countries. Furthermore, results suggest that climate change will depress rice production in sub-Saharan African countries in the 2040s.

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“…Rice has become a primary concern for national food security in Bangladesh [1][2][3]. Climate change may influence rice food security in many parts of the world including Bangladesh [4,5]. Bangladesh primarily produces three ecotypes of rice (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in three different climatic seasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Spatially Variable Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield for Three Ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981–2010

Ara

Lewis

Ostendorf

2017

Advances in Agriculture

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Climate change will impact on rice food security in many parts of the world, including Bangladesh. Little attention has been given to understanding the impact of climate on rice yield for three main ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in different areas of the country. The aim of this paper was to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice yield and climatic variables and the spatially variable climate effects on rice yield for these ecotypes in Bangladesh during 1981-2010 by employing linear mixed models and generalized linear models. The results demonstrated the substantial spatiotemporal variations of rice yield for all ecotypes across the country. Rice yield for ecotypes was more susceptible to temperature changes than rainfall effects. Modelling of a 1 ∘ C temperature increase in the country showed strong regional differences in rice yield for these ecotypes. The study concludes that future temperature changes are likely to change regional rice yield for all ecotypes and hence impact food security. The results have important consequences for food security by indicating the need for appropriate region-specific adaptation measures to reduce rice yield variability in the future. The results show the need to consider spatial differences for policy development to improve food security in Bangladesh.

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Impacts of Climatic Change on World Agricultural Product Markets: Estimation of Macro Yield Functions

Cited by 28 publications

References 3 publications

Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies for Climate Change: Model Development for Impact Analysis and Technological Assessment

Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies for Climate Change: Model Development for Impact Analysis and Technological Assessment

Climate Change Effects on Long-term World-crop Production: Incorporating a Crop Model into Long-term Yield Estimates

Understanding the Spatially Variable Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield for Three Ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981–2010

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