Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China

Abstract

Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.

Responses of Three Pedicularis Species to Geological and Climatic Changes in the Qinling Mountains and Adjacent Areas in East Asia

“…Some other studies also showed that the geological and climatic changes have profoundly affected the geographic distributions and species shifts in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent areas. For example, Jiang et al ( 2023) used species distribution modeling to investigate the geographic range changes of an endangered herb Primula filchnerae R. Knuth in the Qinling Mountains, and they found that the species range would migrate to the north of China in the future climatic scenario [48]. Meanwhile, Zhao et al (2023) detected the geographic changes of a shrub species Bashania fargesii (E. G. Camus) P. C. Keng and T. P. Yi in the Qinling Mountains, and the authors have also concluded that the species would migrate to the north of China in the future [49].…”

The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction

“…It is highly favored for its efficiency and accuracy, as it integrates limited species presence data with environmental information to effectively Plants 2024, 13, 1744 2 of 15 understand species distribution patterns and explore their relationships with environmental variables. The MaxEnt model is now widely used to study the impact of climate change on species distribution [9,10], such as Osmanthus fragrans [11], Cotoneaster multi florus [12], and Primula filchnerae [13]. The findings from these studies provide valuable guidance for the conservation of genetic diversity and the management of germplasm resources [14,15], and have further heightened public concern about climate change [16].…”