Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Barangé, Manuel; Merino, Gorka; Blanchard, Julia L.; Scholtens, Joeri; Harle, James; Allison, Edward H.; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, J. M.; Jennings, Simon

doi:10.1038/nclimate2119

Cited by 475 publications

(382 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

363

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…First, will fisheries and aquaculture be able to maintain the current global fish consumption rate of 18 kg per capita per year, and the equivalent regional values, and if not, how will society address the needs of expected winners and losers (Barange et al 2014)? So far technological and institutional innovations have ensured that the combined production of fish through fisheries and aquaculture has been faster than the world population's demand of fish.…”

Section: Feeding 9 Billion By 2050: Where Does Fish Stand?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A bigger issue is that very few of these studies integrated information on the drivers of changes (the combination of urbanization and increase in income), to estimate with accuracy the future demand for fish across the world. Many studies assume constant consumption rates in the future (e.g., Barange et al 2014) or fixed nutritional targets (Rice and Garcia 2011). Others worked directly with projected fish consumption (e.g., OECD-FAO 2013; Merino et al 2012), that is, by dividing the projected supply by the projected population.…”

Section: Global Drivers Of Fish Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of these earlier GCM models however, were limited by their coarse resolution, too low to capture the processes that dominate the dynamics of the world's coastal and shelf regions, where most fisheries operate. More advanced models are now available (e.g., Merino et al 2012;Blanchard et al 2012;Barange et al 2014).…”

Section: Global Drivers Of Fish Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Fish provides more than 4.5 billion people with at least 15 % of their average per capita intake of animal protein.Fish's unique nutritional properties make it also essential to the health of billions of consumers in both developed and developing countries. Fish is one of the most efficient converters of feed into high quality food and its carbon footprint is lower compared to other animal production systems. Through fish-related activities (fisheries and aquaculture but also processing and trading), fish contribute substantially to the income and therefore to the indirect food security of more than 10 % of the world population, essentially in developing and emergent countries. Yet, limited attention has been given so far to fish as a key element in food security and nutrition strategies at national level and in wider development discussions and interventions. As a result, the tremendous potential for improving food security and nutrition embodied in the strengthening of the fishery and aquaculture sectors is missed. The purpose of this paper is to make a case for a closer integration of fish into the overall debate and future policy about food security and nutrition. For this, we review the evidence from the contemporary and emerging debates and controversies around fisheries and aquaculture and we discuss them in the light of the issues debated in the wider agriculture/farming literature. The overarching question that underlies this paper is: how and to what extent will fish be able to contribute to feeding 9 billion people in 2050 and beyond?

show abstract

Section: Feeding 9 Billion By 2050: Where Does Fish Stand?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Global Drivers Of Fish Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ecologists are increasingly being asked to provide advice in this regard to support conservation and management decisions (Hollowed et al, 2013;Barange et al, 2014;García Molinos et al, 2015). Understanding and predicting these effects requires knowledge of the processes that determine the distribution and abundance of species, the structure and functioning of ecosystems within which they occur, and their past and present dynamics (Southward et al, 1995;Mieszkowska et al, 2006;Lima et al, 2007;Doney et al, 2012;Murphy et al, 2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

show abstract

“…These relate to cases where it is important to consider impacts on human systems of global relevance. Examples include global food security and the role of living marine resources in ensuring this (Merino et al, 2012;Barange et al, 2014), and quantifying global vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal flooding (e.g. Nicholls, 2004).…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12 • , and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4 • ; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12 • global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ∼ 8 % of regions < 500 m deep, but this increases to ∼ 70 % for a 1/72 • model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art.We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12 • global-and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ε vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the highresolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones.To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1/4 • global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5 km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1/72 • global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1/12 • global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1 • global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conc...

show abstract

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Abstract: Barange et al. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in fisheries dependent societies

Cited by 475 publications

References 27 publications

Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu

Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu

A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About