Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

Bambach, Nicolás; Meza, Francisco; Gilabert, Horacio; Miranda, Marcelo D.

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0425-7

Cited by 25 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Chile is highly vulnerable to climate change, which threatens water security for different sectors and affects ecosystems (Bambach, Meza, Gilabert, & Miranda, 2013;Meza et al, 2015). In particular, climate change is likely to affect the frequency and magnitude of droughts in the Mediterranean and semiarid regions of the country by the end of the 21 st century (Chadwick, Gironás, Vicuña, Meza, & McPhee, 2018;Dai, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Oertel

Meza

Gironás

2019

Hydrological Processes

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Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29 S and 40 S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Oertel

Meza

Gironás

2019

Hydrological Processes

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“…Temperatures in southern South America are projected to increase at least 2 °C and precipitation decrease by 10–20% as an outcome of climate change by 2100 ( Beaumont et al, 2011 ). These changes are predicted to lead to distribution shifts and possible extinctions of organisms dwelling in temperate forest and mountain ( Bambach et al, 2013 ). Under this scenario, it is critical to estimate which areas would be suitable for species conservation, and for identifying climatic variables that will determine potential areas where they could survive ( Olson & Dinerstein, 2002 ; Marchese, 2015 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

Riquelme

Estay

López

et al. 2018

PeerJ

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BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

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“…Sclerophyllous woodlands and forests are dominated by evergreen, dry‐adapted trees endemic to central Chile (Donoso , Bambach et al. ). Endemic sclerophyllous tree diversification has been linked to the uplifting of the Andes, ensuing fragmentation of the southern South American biota, and the subsequent drying of the west coast of South America as a consequence of the Andean uplift and cooling of the Pacific Humboldt current, which began in the Miocene–Pleistocene (Arroyo et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acacia caven nurses endemic sclerophyllous trees along a successional pathway from silvopastoral savanna to forest

Root‐Bernstein

Valenzuela²,

Huerta³

et al. 2017

Ecosphere

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Citation: Root-Bernstein, M., R. Valenzuela, M. Huerta, J. Armesto, and F. Jaksic. 2017. Acacia caven nurses endemic sclerophyllous trees along a successional pathway from silvopastoral savanna to forest. Ecosphere 8(2):e01667. 10.1002/ecs2.1667Abstract. The successional pathways linking the Acacia caven-dominated savanna habitat "espinal" and the closed sclerophyllous forest of central Chile have long been debated. Previously, espinal was considered an invasive degradation of closed forest that tended toward desertification, could not be restored to forest, and had little ecological value. Recent GIS (Geographical Information System) research on land-use change has, however, detected apparent regeneration of sclerophyllous forest from espinal. This suggests that there is a successional path linking espinal and sclerophyllous forest. Here, we used surveys of transects in espinals and espinal-sclerophyllous forest transitions to ask whether (1) A. caven is an invasive species or a pioneer species, (2) forest regenerates by sclerophyllous trees "filling in" spaces between A. caven individuals, and then shading them out (plant-plant competition), or (3) forest regenerates by plant-plant facilitation between A. caven and other species, and (4) how current and historical management and condition affect these potential successional mechanisms. We find that A. caven establishes primarily in full sunlight and is unlikely to degrade forests via invasion. We also find, for the first time, evidence that A. caven is a nurse tree to several sclerophyllous forest tree-beneficiary species. Measurements of the under-canopy microhabitat of A. caven, compared to Lithraea caustica, another possible nurse species, suggest that it provides a balance between shade and soil moisture retention, making it a regeneration site not only for directed bird-dispersed seeds but also for undirected wind-dispersed ones. Conservation and restoration of espinals, especially in drier areas, could provide capacity for future dynamic successional pathways in central Chile.

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Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

Cited by 25 publications

References 45 publications

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Protected areas’ effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range

Acacia caven nurses endemic sclerophyllous trees along a successional pathway from silvopastoral savanna to forest

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