Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

Willems, Patrick

doi:10.2166/9781780401263

Cited by 144 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 415 publications

(665 reference statements)

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“…In the current study, the uncertainty related to climate change is addressed by including different climate scenarios, as well as high/low climate change factors, corresponding to the 90th and 10th percentiles from a set of 10 different GCMs. The resulting change factors derived for future precipitation were found to be in close agreement with the findings of other studies (Larsen et al, 2009;Willems et al, 2012;Sunyer et al, 2015a), although direct comparisons are limited by differences in key variables and methodological assumptions between these studies. These include the choice of climate scenarios, control and scenario periods, and the characteristics of the extreme events.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation intensities is represented using a change factor (CF) methodology, i.e. by estimating the relative difference between climate model outputs (extreme precipitation intensities) for future and present-day conditions respectively (Willems et al, 2012;Sunyer et al, 2015b). Extreme value analyses are carried out for both present-day (1986-2005) and future (2081-2100) time slices for maximum hourly precipitation (within one day) to estimate the intensities for return periods of 5 to 100 years (RP 5, RP 10, RP 20, RP 50 and RP 100).…”

Section: Climate-change Impacts On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Kaspersen

Ravn²,

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

150

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Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the "stationary" approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the "evolutionary" approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical t...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Climate-change Impacts On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Kaspersen

Ravn²,

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

150

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this paper, we used an advanced version of the QM approach developed recently by Willems et al (2012). The CDFs were set up on a daily basis for observed and GCM-simulated rainfall for the baseline period .…”

Section: Quantile Mapping Downscaling Methods (Qm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where P * basper is precipitation bias corrected for the base period of GCM, P * fut is precipitation bias corrected for the future period of GCM, F is a cumulative distribution function (CDF), F −1 γ is the inverse of (CDF), and γ is the Gamma distribution (Willems et al, 2012).…”

Section: Quantile Mapping Downscaling Methods (Qm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

Basheer

Lü

Omer

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River basin (DRB) and to infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in Sudan. Four global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with a hydrological model (SWAT -the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow is quite sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration for the habitats of flora and fauna.

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“…It is no surprise that floods are the natural disasters with the highest economic damage costs. Moreover, the number of floods has strongly increased during the last decades due to two main driving forces: the increasing trend of extreme rainfall events by climate change [2][3][4] and rising urbanization [5]. The problem of floods will further enlarge in the future, due to these ongoing trends.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dealing with rainfall forecast uncertainties in real-time flood control along the Demer river

et al. 2016

Self Cite

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Abstract. Real-time Model Predictive Control (MPC) of hydraulic structures strongly reduces flood consequences under ideal circumstances. The performance of such flood control may, however, be significantly affected by uncertainties. This research quantifies the influence of rainfall forecast uncertainties and related uncertainties in the catchment rainfall-runoff discharges on the control performance for the Herk river case study in Belgium. To limit the model computational times, a fast conceptual model is applied. It is calibrated to a full hydrodynamic river model. A Reduced Genetic Algorithm is used as optimization method. Next to the analysis of the impact of the rainfall forecast uncertainties on the control performance, a Multiple Model Predictive Control (MMPC) approach is tested to reduce this impact. Results show that the deterministic MPC-RGA outperforms the MMPC and that it is inherently robust against rainfall forecast uncertainties due to its receding horizon strategy.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

Cited by 144 publications

References 415 publications

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

Dealing with rainfall forecast uncertainties in real-time flood control along the Demer river

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