Impacts of climate change on the discharge and glacier mass balance of the different glacierized watersheds in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Xu, Min; Wu, Hao; Kang, Shichang

doi:10.1002/hyp.11409

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(100 reference statements)

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“…The Mann–Kendall monotonic test was applied to detect trends in hypothesis testing of hydrometeorological time series without specifying whether the trend is linear or nonlinear (Kendall and Stuart, ; Xu et al, ). The null hypothesis ( H 0 ) assumes that no significant increasing or decreasing trend exists in the time series, whereas the time series shows a significant variation in trends under the alternative hypothesis (Li et al, ; Ling et al, 2013a; Xu et al, ; see Appendix).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It occurs when the climate system crosses a threshold. The Mann–Kendall abrupt change test is one of the most effective methods for testing abrupt time series changes, and this test can clarify the start time of the alteration (Kendall, ; Hao et al, ; Xu et al, , b). The method is used to analyse the change points of climatic factors and discharge in this study (see Appendix).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017

Kang

Wang

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Changes in the hydrological regimes of Arctic rivers could affect the thermohaline circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal variations in temperature and precipitation in the Ob River Basin regions during 1936-2017 based on data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center.Changes in discharge and response to climate change were examined based on monthly observed data during the same period. It is indicated the Ob River Basin experienced significant overall rapid warming and wetting (increased precipitation) in the study period, with average rates of 0.20 C (10 year −1 ) and 5.3 mm (10 year −1 ), respectively. The annual spatial variations of temperature and precipitation showed different scales in different regions. The discharge in spring and winter significantly increased at a rate of 384.1 and 173.1 m 3 /s (10 year −1 ), respectively. Hydrograph separation indicated infiltration and supported that deep flow paths increased the contribution of groundwater to base flow. Meanwhile, the variation of the ratio of Q max /Q min suggested that the basin storage and the mechanism of discharge generation have significantly changed. The hydrological processes were influenced by changes of permafrost in a certain in the Ob RiverBasin. An increase in the recession coefficient (RC) implies that the permafrost degradation in the basin due to climate warming affected hydrological processes in winter. Permafrost degradation affected the Q max /Q min more significantly in the warm season than RC due to the enhanced infiltration that converted more surface water into groundwater in the cold season. The impact of precipitation on discharge, including surface flow and base flow, was more significant than temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Ob River Basin. The base flow was more obviously influenced by temperature than surface flow. The results of this study are significant for analyses of the basin water budget and freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean. K E Y W O R D Sdischarge, hydrological processes, impacts, Ob River, temperature and precipitation

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017

Kang

Wang

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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“…Previous work found that runoff and precipitation in the mountains have close negative-exponential relations to their areas, with maximum precipitation and runoff occurring in glacierized areas [86]. According to the observed runoff and precipitation datasets, GMB in this study during 1979-2015 was reconstructed by using statistical mechanics and a maximum entropy principle (SMMEP) model, which has already been applied in the Tienshan Mountains [13]. Specifically, this model's reliability and accuracy have been validated in research on the Urumqi River [86].…”

Section: Glacier Mass Balance Calculationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Changes in Water Discharge in Snow and Glacier Melt-Dominated Rivers in the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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Global warming has generally led to changes in river runoffs fed by snow and glacier meltwater in mountain ranges. The runoff of the Aksu River, which originates in the Southern Tienshan Mountains, exhibited a positive trend during 1979–2002, but this trend reversed during 2002–2015. Through a comprehensive analysis, this study aims to estimate potential reasons for changes in the runoff of its two contrasting headwaters: the Toxkan and Kumalak Rivers, based on climatic data, the altitude of the 0 °C isotherm, glacier mass balance (GMB), snow cover area (SCA), snow depth (SD) and the sensitivity model. For the Toxkan River, the decrease in spring runoff mainly resulted from reductions in precipitation, whereas the decrease in summer runoff was mainly caused by early snowmelt in spring and a much-reduced snow meltwater supply in summer. In addition, the obvious glacier area reduction in the catchment (decreased to less than 4%) also contributed to the reduced summer runoff. For the Kumalak River, a sharp decrease rate of 10.21 × 108 m3/decade in runoff was detected due to summertime cooling of both surface and upper air temperatures. Reduced summer temperatures with a positive trend in precipitation not only inhibited glacier melting but also dropped the 0 °C layer altitude, resulting in a significant increase in summertime SCA and SD, a slowing of the glacier negative mass balance, and a lowering of the snow-line altitude.

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“…The spatiotemporal changes of snow in mountainous areas not only affect global climate and hydrological changes, but also affect agricultural-livestock production in the lower reaches of oases and the safety of the surrounding ecological environment [5,6]. The Tianshan mountains lie in the hinterland of Asia, including 15,953 glaciers with an area of 10,101 km 2 [7][8][9], and are located in the widest arid zone of the world's landmass [10,11]. Since the 1980s, the Tianshan mountains have shown a warming and wetting trend [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spatiotemporal Patterns and Interrelationships of Snow Cover and Climate Change in Tianshan Mountains

Heng

Yang

et al. 2021

Water

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To reveal the spatiotemporal patterns of the asymmetry in the Tianshan mountains’ climatic warming, in this study, we analyzed climate and MODIS snow cover data (2001–2019). The change trends of asymmetrical warming, snow depth (SD), snow coverage percentage (SCP), snow cover days (SCD) and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Tianshan mountains were quantitatively determined, and the influence of asymmetrical warming on the snow cover activity of the Tianshan mountains were discussed. The results showed that the nighttime warming rate (0.10 °C per decade) was greater than the daytime, and that the asymmetrical warming trend may accelerate in the future. The SCP of Tianshan mountain has reduced by 0.9%. This means that for each 0.1 °C increase in temperature, the area of snow cover will reduce by 5.9 km2. About 60% of the region’s daytime warming was positively related to SD and SWE, and about 48% of the region’s nighttime warming was negatively related to SD and SWE. Temperature increases were concentrated mainly in the Pamir Plateau southwest of Tianshan at high altitudes and in the Turpan and Hami basins in the east. In the future, the western and eastern mountainous areas of the Tianshan will continue to show a warming trend, while the central mountainous areas of the Tianshan mountains will mainly show a cooling trend.

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Impacts of climate change on the discharge and glacier mass balance of the different glacierized watersheds in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017

Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017

Recent Changes in Water Discharge in Snow and Glacier Melt-Dominated Rivers in the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia

The Spatiotemporal Patterns and Interrelationships of Snow Cover and Climate Change in Tianshan Mountains

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