Impacts of Climate Change on the Southern Ocean

Mintenbeck, Katja

doi:10.1002/9781119154051.ch20

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 181 publications

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“…Recruitment of Patagonian toothfish is variable from year to year and most likely indirectly related to SST (Mintenbeck, 2017;Yates et al, 2018). While there have been no observational studies examining recruitment variability on the Kerguelen Plateau, studies from other regions of the Southern Ocean suggest this could be important for predicting changes to toothfish populations (e.g., Laptikhovsky and Brickle, 2005).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Kerguelen Plateau, located in the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean (Figure 1), intersects with the frontal systems of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) (Park et al, 2014). Driven by strong westerly winds, the ACC brings water of varying temperatures (0.5-3 • C) to the Kerguelen Plateau (Park et al, 2014;Mintenbeck, 2017). Upwelling leads to annual phytoplankton blooms that support breeding and foraging predators (Thiers et al, 2017) and the largest fishery for Patagonian toothfish (Brooks et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A trawl fishery for mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) was initiated at the same time as the toothfish and continues today (from December-November). Both EEZs are located within the CCAMLR area and while Australian catch limits are agreed through consensus in CCAMLR (Mintenbeck, 2017), French catch limits are decided unilaterally.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Patagonian toothfish are a slow growing, long-lived species, which makes them vulnerable to over-fishing. Recruitment is influenced by the environment (such as SST) making them susceptible to future climate change (Mintenbeck, 2017). Correlating food web dynamics with climate requires consistent observations, which is difficult on the Kerguelen Plateau due to its remote location and harsh environmental conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time-Dynamic Food Web Modeling to Explore Environmental Drivers of Ecosystem Change on the Kerguelen Plateau

et al. 2020

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Understanding the impacts of climate and fishing on marine systems is important for ecosystem-based management in the Southern Ocean, but can be difficult to evaluate due to patchy data in space and time. We developed the first time-dynamic food web model for the Kerguelen Plateau using Ecopath with Ecosim to explore likely drivers of change in this relatively data-poor region. The Kerguelen Plateau is located at the centre of intersecting frontal systems and is inhabited by one of the largest populations of the commercially important Patagonian toothfish. We used this model to evaluate the environmental and human drivers of food web dynamics in the region by calibrating it with French and Australian fisheries data from 1997-2018 and biomass data for the period 1986-2018. Fishing was not identified as a driver of food web dynamics within this model, which could indicate that current management strategies are sustainable. A correlation analysis with environmental parameters likely to drive food web dynamics (sea surface temperature, zonal wind, Southern Annular Mode and chlorophyll a concentration) highlighted cool sea surface temperature, higher zonal wind speeds and negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode as important drivers of change, particularly during the summer. As the Southern Ocean is predicted to warm and winds are expected to intensify under future climate change, our study illustrates the importance of considering environmental change in ecosystem management.

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Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time-Dynamic Food Web Modeling to Explore Environmental Drivers of Ecosystem Change on the Kerguelen Plateau

et al. 2020

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“…The Southwest At lantic region has experienced particularly rapid warming over the twentieth century, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increasing by ~1.3°C around the Ant arctic Peninsula since the 1950s (Meredith & King 2005) and ~2.3°C near South Georgia since the 1920s (Whitehouse et al 2008). These changes are ex pected to have far-reaching consequences for both marine and terrestrial habitats (Ducklow et al 2013, Constable et al 2014, Lee et al 2017, Mintenbeck 2017 and have led to concerns over the future of the Antarctic krill Euphausia superba population (reviewed by Flores et al 2012). E. superba is a major prey source for many species of fish, squid, seabirds, and marine mammals, forming a crucial link between primary production and higher tropic levels (Sme -tacek & Nicol 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing temperature may shift availability of euphausiid prey in the Southern Ocean

Richerson¹,

Driscoll²,

Mangel³

2018

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Climate change is predicted to affect Southern Ocean biota in complex ways. Euphausiids play a crucial role in the trophodynamics of the ecosystem, and their status under future environmental scenarios is the subject of much concern. Thysanoessa macrura is the most widely distributed, numerically abundant, and ubiquitous euphausiid south of the Polar Front and may be an underappreciated prey species. T. macrura is eurythermic and may be better able to tolerate warming ocean temperatures in comparison to the more stenothermic Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. We use temperature-dependent growth models and biomass per recruit to investigate how the availability of this euphausiid to predators may change under a range of temperature scenarios. We contrast this with the availability of E. superba and find that, under some ranges of temperature change, increasing T. macrura growth may be able to partially compensate for decreasing E. superba growth in terms of biomass available for predators. However, in spite of its considerable biomass, other aspects of this species, such as its size and habitat, may limit its potential to replace E. superba in the diet of many predators.

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Comparative changes in seasonal marine heatwaves and cold spells over the Tropical Indian Ocean during recent decades and disentangling the drivers of highly intense events

Dinesh,

Mishra,

Dubey

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The unprecedented increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the warming climate yield stress to the system and pose severe threats to the marine ecosystem. Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) and Marine Cold Spells (MCSs) are two extreme events related to SST variability. For better management of ocean productivity, marine ecosystem, marine services, and fisheries, the understanding of seasonal discrepancies rather than annual documentation of MHWs and MCSs metrics is more utilitarian. This study documents the decadal changes in the MHWs and MCSs over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) for all seasons. Additionally, highly intense events (based on intensity and duration) are identified and demonstrate the associated drivers. During the past two decades (1982–1990, 1991–2000), the MCSs were more frequent than MHWs in every season. However, in the recent two decades (2001–2010, 2011–2020), TIO become more prone to MHWs with considerably more frequent and prolonged events in JJAS months. Moreover, MCSs are disappearing from the TIO. It was noted that the choice of baseline period has an impact on the magnitude of MHWs and MCSs changes, but the spatial pattern (regions with high/low magnitude MHWs and MCSs) stays fairly constant in all baseline period sensitivity checks. The investigation of highly intense events reveals that MHWs and MCSs are produced and sustained by the same drivers when they are at their opposing edges. In general, the coherence effort from winds, net heat fluxes (shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux), mixed level depth, and mean sea level pressure contribute to the genesis of seasonal MHWs or MCSs events. Additionally, in some cases, a single driver (e.g., wind) may also play a crucial role in these extreme events. The remote climate modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, also contribute significantly to the MHWs and MCSs. El Niño (La Niña) events not only increase the spatial coverage of MHWs (MCSs) but also increases the intensity.

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Impacts of Climate Change on the Southern Ocean

Cited by 8 publications

References 181 publications

Time-Dynamic Food Web Modeling to Explore Environmental Drivers of Ecosystem Change on the Kerguelen Plateau

Time-Dynamic Food Web Modeling to Explore Environmental Drivers of Ecosystem Change on the Kerguelen Plateau

Increasing temperature may shift availability of euphausiid prey in the Southern Ocean

Comparative changes in seasonal marine heatwaves and cold spells over the Tropical Indian Ocean during recent decades and disentangling the drivers of highly intense events

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