Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

Allen, M. D.; Fernandez, Steven; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

doi:10.1038/nenergy.2016.103

Cited by 66 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Thus, impacts to California's peak period infrastructure do not necessarily reflect overall electricity supply adequacy at the interconnection scale. Reference [27] investigate spatially explicit changes in electricity load at the neighborhood scale using high-resolution downscaled climate model output in the Southeastern United States. Dirks et al [4] use a highly detailed building energy model to assess climate effects on peak electricity load in the Eastern Interconnection using one climate model scenario [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

Bartos

Chester

Johnson

et al. 2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

132

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Climate change may constrain future electricity supply adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity and increasing electricity demand. The carrying capacity of electric power cables decreases as ambient air temperatures rise; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity loads typically increase with hotter air temperatures due to increased air conditioning usage. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher ambient air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by simultaneously reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity load. We estimate the impacts of rising ambient air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak per-capita electricity load for 121 planning areas in the United States using downscaled global climate model projections. Together, these planning areas account for roughly 80% of current peak summertime load. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with future temperature projections to determine the percent change in rated ampacity. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity load by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We find that by mid-century (2040-2060), increases in ambient air temperature may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 1.9%-5.8% relative to the 1990-2010 reference period. At the same time, peak per-capita summertime loads may rise by 4.2%-15% on average due to increases in ambient air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity supply adequacy. Glossary q c  Convective heat loss from conductor to air (W m -1 ) q r  Radiative heat loss from conductor to surroundings (W m -1 ) q s  Radiative heat transfer from sun to conductor (W m -1 ) q j  Resistive heating of the conductor (W m -1 )

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

Bartos

Chester

Johnson

et al. 2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

132

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“…Estimates to date have focused primarily on aggregate consumption impacts, using state-level monthly averages of residential electricity load (8,9), high-frequency data at the single-state or regional level (10)(11)(12)(13), and residential billing data from electric utilities (14). The majority of this literature is based on California and the American South.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States

Auffhammer

Baylis

Hausman

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

307

180

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The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual. electricity consumption | peak load | climate change | economic impacts | extreme events I ntegrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to estimate the US government's social cost of carbon include large costs due to changes in electricity demand resulting from climate change (1-3). The Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation, and Distribution (FUND), for example, estimates the majority of the costs of climate change to result from the additional cost of cooling (4). However, FUND and the other IAMs rely on a highly simplified and outdated estimate of the relationship between rising temperatures and heating and cooling costs (5, 6). At the same time, future capital investments in electric generation capacity require accurate, region-specific forecasts of future electricity demand. Many aspects of these forecasts are well understood: electricity demand tends to rise with population, income, and the presence of energy-intensive industries (7). However, because electricity use by residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers is strongly affected by ambient temperature, climate change-induced changes in temperature are likely to significantly affect future generation, transmission, and distribution requirements relative to a world with a stationary climate. As the electricity grid is designed for maximum load days, which tend to be the hottest days in many areas, the increasing intensity of extreme heat days will require additional investments in peak generation capacity, transmission, or storage.Prior work has examined the relationship between electricity load, i.e., the quantity of electricity demanded, and tem...

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“…First, studies based on multisector models typically focus on annual electricity demands without capturing the effects of temperature change at subannual scales, such as daily and seasonal peak demands 1,2,[12][13][14][15][16][17] (Supplementary Note 1). Second, studies using econometric and empirical methods typically do not account for changes in socioeconomics (population, income), technological advances, fuel prices, and infrastructure (e.g., transportation infrastructure) development 8,11,[18][19][20][21][22][23] . Finally, studies using power-sector focused tools do not account for multisectoral interactions, including the impacts of broader socioeconomic trends on energy service demands, economic competition among fuels to meet those demands (e.g., competition between electricity and natural gas use for heating in buildings), and implications of global commodity and fuel markets [24][25][26][27] .…”

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confidence: 99%

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

et al. 2021

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Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

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Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

Cited by 66 publications

References 22 publications

Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

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