Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China

Abstract

Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to include the Shenongjia reserve and the surrounding reserves and highlighting ecosystem protection at higher elevations, and (iii) using finer-scale research to guide the conservation planning and education in order to enhance protection and awareness in the local community. National and provincial conservation policies should integrate projections of climate change in making effective conservation strategies.

Assessment of Habitat Fragmentation and Corridors for an Isolated Subspecies of the Sichuan Golden Snub-Nosed Monkey, Rhinopithecus roxellana hubeiensis

“…At present, the distribution of R. roxellana has been reduced to six isolated mountainous regions: Minshan, Qionglai, Daxueshan-Xiaoliangshan, Qinling, North Motianling, and Shennongjia (Li et al 2002a, b;Liu 2007;Xiang et al 2011). Although studies of habitat selection, behavior, dispersal, genetic structure, the genetic relationships among populations, and the impacts of climate change on this species have informed its conservation (Chang et al 2011(Chang et al , 2012(Chang et al , 2014Guo et al 2010;Li 2006Li , 2007Li et al 2001Li et al , 2007Li et al , 2015Luo et al 2012Luo et al , 2015bQi et al 2014;Zhao et al 2010;Zhou et al 2014), few reports have focused on habitat quality, connectivity, and corridor design for R. roxellana, although these factors could have important effects on its survival, reproduction, growth rate, genetic diversity, and population stability (Liu 2007;Luo et al 2015b;Quan and Xie 2002).…”

“…R. roxellana have extensive home ranges of 3-30 km 2 and low population densities (Li et al 2000); they typically live in groups of 70-300 individuals (Qi et al 2008;Tan et al 2007). Several nature reserves, including Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, and conservation strategies have been established for this species in recent decades, but >50% of R. roxellana habitat has been lost (Luo et al 2015b;Xiang et al 2011). In the past half century, population declines of nearly 50% have been detected in some populations, e.g., from 1600 to 800 individuals in the area of North Motianling, due to increasing human disturbance, deforestation, agricultural expansion, and global climate change (Li et al 2002a, b;Liu 2007;Luo et al 2015b;Quan and Xie 2002;Xiang et al 2011).…”

“…As a result of deforestation, human population growth, tourism development, road construction, livestock grazing, and illegal hunting in this area, the population of R. roxellana hubeiensis has been nearly halved in the past 30 yr, from >2000 individuals in 1973 to 1282 individuals in 2006 (Li et al 2002a, b;Yang et al 2008;Zhu 2006). Although surveys have been conducted and conservation actions have been taken since the establishment of the Shennongjia Nature Reserve in 1982, little is known of the habitat quality and landscape structure for R. roxellana hubeiensis in this region (Luo et al 2015b;Yang et al 2008). Therefore, predicting the distribution of potential habitat based on habitat assessment procedures as well as modeling habitat corridors among habitat patches using landscape ecology methods represents important research topics for the management and conservation of R. roxellana hubeiensis.…”

“…Its range includes mountainous terrain at elevations from 1500 to 3500 m a.s.l., and it is found only in some temperate broadleaf and coniferous forests within Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Hubei Provinces (Li et al 2002a, b;Luo et al 2015b;Xiang et al 2011). The diet of R. roxellana includes fruits, seeds, buds, leaves, tree bark, and lichens, which vary seasonally (Li 2006).…”

“…Several nature reserves, including Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, and conservation strategies have been established for this species in recent decades, but >50% of R. roxellana habitat has been lost (Luo et al 2015b;Xiang et al 2011). In the past half century, population declines of nearly 50% have been detected in some populations, e.g., from 1600 to 800 individuals in the area of North Motianling, due to increasing human disturbance, deforestation, agricultural expansion, and global climate change (Li et al 2002a, b;Liu 2007;Luo et al 2015b;Quan and Xie 2002;Xiang et al 2011). At present, the distribution of R. roxellana has been reduced to six isolated mountainous regions: Minshan, Qionglai, Daxueshan-Xiaoliangshan, Qinling, North Motianling, and Shennongjia (Li et al 2002a, b;Liu 2007;Xiang et al 2011).…”