Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Bartošová, Alena; Gustafsson, Bo; Jabloun, Mohamed; McCrackin, Michelle L.; Meier, H. E. Markus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Saraiva, Sofia; Swaney, Dennis P.; Thodsen, Hans

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138935

Cited by 40 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Despite underestimated uncertainties and the usage of older forcing scenarios, the presented scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea are unique. The results differed from those of earlier studies based on CMIP3 21 because in this study (1) nutrient load scenarios were revised 37,52 , (2) initial conditions were improved using a long spin-up simulation with a start in 1850 53,54 and (3) various SLR scenarios were considered, such that vertical stratification was higher. In particular, the revised, lower nutrient loads of this study led to a significant improvement in the ecological status of the Baltic Sea under the BSAP scenario.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

“…2), we regionalised scenario simulations of four Earth System Models (ESMs) driven by two greenhouse gas scenarios, medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) ( Table 1). Two nutrient load scenarios were applied: the BSAP (following SSP 1) and a business-as-usual or reference scenario (REF) that assumes the same average nutrient loads for the future (following SSP 2) as during a reference period (2010-2012) 29,37 . Nutrient inputs during the latter were modified by taking into account the projected increase in river discharge (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios. In this study, 48 scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea were carried out based upon a matrix of (1) four driving ESMs 68,69 ; (2) two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios following RCP 4.5 (medium) and RCP 8.5 (high) 33 ; (3) two nutrient load scenarios following regionalised SSP 1 (a low case scenario, called BSAP 26 ) and SSP 2 (a business-as-usual or REF scenario that takes into account the impact of climate change and the current socioeconomic conditions 29,37,52 ) and (4) three linearly increasing SLR scenarios from the year 2005. The projected mean sea-level changes in the year 2100 are: (scenario 1) 0 m, (scenario 2) the ensemble mean of RCP 4.5 (0.54 m) and RCP 8.5 (0.90 m) IPCC projections 56,81 and (scenario 3) the 95th percentiles of the low-(1.26 m) and high-case (2.34 m) scenarios following Bamber et al 62 (Table 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nutrient load scenarios defined plausible pathways of nutrient inputs from rivers, point sources and atmospheric deposition following SSP 1 and SSP 2 29,37,52 . In the BSAP scenario, nutrient loads decreased linearly from the values in 2012 (average for 2010-2012 85 ) to the maximum allowable input defined in the mitigation plan in 2020.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Meier

Dieterich

Gröger

2021

Commun Earth Environ

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Coastal seas worldwide suffer from increasing human impact. One of the most severe environmental threats is excessive nutrient pollution from land, which causes oxygen depletion and harmful algal blooms. In 2018, the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea was determined to contain the largest hypoxic area among the world’s coastal seas, with a size equal to the Republic of Ireland. In this study, ensemble modelling was used to investigate whether climate change will intensify hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and whether nutrient load abatement strategies would counteract this scenario. We analysed the largest ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea currently available (including different boundary conditions) and estimated the magnitude of various sources of uncertainty. The results showed that natural variability was a larger source of uncertainty than previously considered. The earliest time and appropriate location to detect a trend above the background noise were estimated. A significant decrease in hypoxia can be achieved by further reductions in nutrient loads implemented in combination with existing measures.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Meier

Dieterich

Gröger

2021

Commun Earth Environ

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“…The calculated total load of phosphorus is in the same order of magnitude as the calculations made for 2010 by 26 Pihlainen et al [26], but it is approximately 15% lower for nitrogen. The calculated nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea in this study includes only emissions originating from sources in the nine countries surrounding the sea.…”

Section: Nutrient Loads and Targetssupporting

confidence: 70%

Cost Effectiveness of Ecosystem-Based Nutrient Targets—Findings from a Numerical Model for the Baltic Sea

Gren

Tirkaso

2020

Water

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An ecosystem-based management of a large sea can give heterogeneous nutrient load targets for different parts of the sea. Cost effective solutions to heterogeneous nutrient reductions targets based on ecological conditions are compared with the same overall nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea. To this end, a numerical programming model is used, which includes eight different nutrient abatement measures (fertilizer and livestock reduction, cultivation of catch crops, reduced airborne nitrogen emissions, improved cleaning at sewage treatment plants, construction of wetlands and buffer strips, and mussel farming) in 21 catchments of the Baltic Sea. The results indicate that the cost for the international agreement on maximum load targets to different marine basins amounts to 5.3 billion euro. This is more than twice as large as the cost for the same total nutrient load targets to the Baltic Sea without specific targets for the marine basins. However, the resulting nutrient loads to the different marine basins deviate from the basin targets where the loads are lower for some basins but can exceed that for one basin, Baltic Proper, by approximately 22 per cent. Whether or not the ecological costs and benefits from deviations in basin targets under the Baltic Sea targets exceed the excess abatement cost of 2.9 billion euro for achieving the marine basin targets remains to be verified.

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Surface Water Eutrophication in Poland: Assessment and Prevention

Neverova-Dziopak

2021

Quality of Water Resources in Poland

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Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

Cited by 40 publications

References 35 publications

Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Cost Effectiveness of Ecosystem-Based Nutrient Targets—Findings from a Numerical Model for the Baltic Sea

Surface Water Eutrophication in Poland: Assessment and Prevention

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