Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

Faye, Babacar; Webber, Heidi; Naab, Jesse B.; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Adam, Myriam; Ewert, Frank; Lamers, John P. A.; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich; Ruane, Alex C.; Geßner, Ursula; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Boote, Kenneth J.; Shelia, Vakhtang; Saeed, Fahad; Wisser, Dominik; Hadir, Sofia; Laux, Patrick; Gaiser, Thomas

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40

Cited by 80 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Similarly, an increase in the frequency of crop failures has been shown with 1.5°C global warming above the pre‐industrial period for maize, millet, and sorghum in West Africa (Parkes, Defrance, Sultan, Ciais, & Wang, ). On the other hand, Faye et al () did not detect a change in yield variability for the same three crops in West African between the 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios using HAPPI climate data. In our study, the change in climate extremes occurs due to projected shifts in mean temperatures (which bring wheat cropping systems closer to heat stress thresholds) as well as shifts in the distribution of daily temperatures, which can increase or decrease the frequency of future heat waves.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

Self Cite

123

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“…In Africa, existing studies for the DSSAT CERES Millet model, largely concentrated in the west SSA, evaluate pearl millet crop for +1.5 and +2 • C temperature scenarios [29,32]. Aiming to understand the risk associated with the two temperature scenarios [32] and evaluate it in relation to current fertilizer use against intensification. Their recommendations that higher yields will be obtained under intensification are in line with [29], who warn about the production risks associated with non-adopters of crop management strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) is a highly-ranked crop model capable of simulating different cropping strategies in semi-arid agro-climatic regions [30,31]. DSSAT models (calibrated and validated) are frequently used to assess the sensitivity of different crops to abiotic stresses [26,27] and to evaluate crop management strategies for current weather conditions and future scenarios [18,32]. However, to our understanding, the DSSAT CERES Millet model is not yet calibrated and evaluated in the East African region (EA).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such studies are largely concentrated in West Africa. Examples of these studies include the assessment of impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 • C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum [32], determining optimum planting dates for pearl millet for contrasting environments [33], determining the combined effects of nutrient fertilization management and climatic variability on yields of pearl millet [34], and assessing climate change impacts on the productivity of pearl millet [35]. The lack of such studies in semi-arid EA limits the opportunities of preparedness for risks associated with pearl millet production.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Rainfed Pearl Millet Yield Sensitivity to Abiotic Stresses in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania, Eastern Africa

et al. 2019

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Drought and heat-tolerant crops, such as Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), are priority crops for fighting hunger in semi-arid regions. Assessing its performance under future climate scenarios is critical for determining its resilience and sustainability. Field experiments were conducted over two consecutive seasons (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) to determine the yield responses of the crop (pearl millet variety "Okoa") to microdose fertilizer application in a semi-arid region of Tanzania. Data from the experiment were used to calibrate and validate the DSSAT model (CERES Millet). Subsequently, the model evaluated synthetic climate change scenarios for temperature increments and precipitation changes based on historic observations (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). Temperature increases of +0.5 to +3.0 • C (from baseline), under non-fertilized (NF) and fertilizer microdose (MD) conditions were used to evaluate nine planting dates of pearl millet from early (5 December) to late planting (25 February), based on increments of 10 days. The planting date with the highest yields was subjected to 49 synthetic scenarios of climate change for temperature increments and precipitation changes (of −30% up to +30% from baseline) to simulate yield responses. Results show that the model reproduced the phenology and yield, indicating a very good performance. Model simulations indicate that temperature increases negatively affected yields for all planting dates under NF and MD. Early and late planting windows were more negatively affected than the normal planting window, implying that temperature increases reduced the length of effective planting window for achieving high yields in both NF and MD. Farmers must adjust their planting timing, while the timely availability of seeds and fertilizer is critical. Precipitation increases had a positive effect on yields under all tested temperature increments, but Okoa cultivar only has steady yield increases up to a maximum of 1.5 • C, beyond which yields decline. This informs the need for further breeding or testing of other cultivars that are more heat tolerant. However, under MD, the temperature increments and precipitation change scenarios are higher than under NF, indicating a high potential of yield improvement under MD, especially with precipitation increases. Further investigation should focus on other cropping strategies such as the use of in-field rainwater harvesting and heat-tolerant cultivars to mitigate the effects of temperature increase and change in precipitation on pearl millet yield.

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“…More recently, Dosio et al (2018) projected a significant increase of heat wave magnitude over this region even under the 1.5°C target. Only few studies compared changes between the two warming targets with a focus over West Africa, but was limited to the issue of wet and dry spells (Klutse et al, 2018) and crop yields (Faye et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

et al. 2018

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Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2°C than in the 1.5°C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

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Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

Cited by 80 publications

References 52 publications

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Modelling Rainfed Pearl Millet Yield Sensitivity to Abiotic Stresses in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania, Eastern Africa

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

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