Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea

Abstract

Climate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy–climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts of climate factors on the grain yields in different crop areas. The peaks over threshold model based on the generalized Pareto distribution was used to calculate the value at risk and the expected shortfall, which can evaluate the yield risk of different crops. The impact ratio of climate change was employed to estimate the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: the impacts of climate factors on grain yields and the risk vary widely across the different regions and crops. Compared to 1991–2020, climate change from 2021 to 2050 exerts positive impacts on rice and wheat, while the negative impacts on maize in the crop areas are significantly affected by climate factors. The impact ratios of climate change are larger in the SSP1-2.6 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful for targeting grain yields in smaller study areas.

Temporal and Spatial Variations in Drought and Its Impact on Agriculture in China

“…Overall, the current research on the spatial and temporal distributions of drought on agricultural production is still not comprehensive. A large number of studies have shown that crop yields are affected by drought [53][54][55], but there is a lack of diversified crop yield indicators, and there is also a lack of analysis on the impact of different levels of drought on the rate of change in the TGO. The rate of change in the TGO reflects the sustainable development of agricultural production.…”